Assessment for Quebecois in Canada

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The Quebecois are at a very low risk for violent rebellion. Although a separatist movement has persisted in Quebec for many years, it has not employed violence to achieve its goals since the 1970s. They live under a democratic regime that is actively involved with negotiated policies related to the state of the group. The Quebecois are also not repressed by the Canadian government, which makes many efforts to appease the demands of the Quebecois, particularly on the provincial level. They do not suffer from political and cultural restrictions, and in fact, the culture of the Quebecois is often protected, if not supported directly, by law. The Quebecois do have a high territorial concentration and high levels of group cohesion and organization. However, this is only like to lead to protests on the same level as in the past and not lead to an outbreak of violence. Most recent protests have been aimed at the provincial government that has not been as sympathetic to calls for autonomy and secession as previous governments. The politicians who lead the Québécois political parties find it in their best interest to continue to press for more power vis-à-vis the Ottawa government and to make the case to Québécois that the province would be better off on its own. As Quebec continues to perform well economically, the confidence of the Québécois in their ability to survive as an independent country could also grow – leading to greater protest. In particular, the Quebec nationalist elite believe, with some justification, that a sovereign Quebec could expect to negotiate status within NAFTA and the Free Trade Area for the Americas. Also, a 2006 parliamentary resolution recognizing Quebec as a distinct “nation” within Canada could provide a basis for future calls for independence.

The role of allophones, or immigrants who speak a language other than French or English, in Quebec’s future is unclear, although they have tended to side with Anglophone Quebecers in the past. What impact these cross-currents will have on the future of Quebec politics is uncertain, but it seems likely that they are diluting the group cohesion that would be necessary for a sustained push for independence.

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Analytic Summary

French-speakers have lived in Quebec since 1608. In 1763, after France's loss in war to Britain, the Treaty of Paris was signed, formally ceding to Britain virtually all of New France east of the Mississippi, including Quebec. After a failed attempt to assimilate the inhabitants of Quebec into an English-speaking colony, Britain granted the full retention of their French-speaking culture and legal system, in effect recognizing the colony's distinctiveness. In 1791, the British Parliament passed an act splitting its holdings in Canada into English-speaking Upper Canada (later to become Ontario) and Lower Canada (Quebec) which remained French-speaking. In 1837, French-speaking Quebecois unsuccessfully rebelled against Britain in response to a policy of anglicanization. In 1840 Britain imposed its Act of Union, under which Quebec was joined with the rest of Canada. In 1867, the British North America Act founded Canada, including Quebec, as an independent nation with continuing ties to the British Crown.

Quebec is Canada’s largest province and is comprised mainly (around 70-75 percent) by the Québécois (GROUPCON = 3), descendants of the original French population who arrived beginning in the early 17th century. Compared to the rest of English-speaking Canada, the Québéçois have a different language (LANG = 1). Many Québécois believe that control over their destiny has been denied since the defeat of the French by the British in 1763. As a result, there have been tensions in Canada over Quebec’s future within or outside of Canada. These tensions are reinforced by the strength of the Québécois identity, the failed attempts to devise constitutional arrangements that satisfy the Québécois, and the constant attention the constitutional issue receives in Quebec and throughout the rest of Canada.

The Québécois do not face demographic disadvantages or any political, cultural, or economic discrimination (POLDIS06 = 0; CULP01 = 0; CULP02 = 0; ECODIS06 = 0). The group is also not subject to any form of government repression. Prior to the 1960s the French-speaking population was marginalized economically in Canada. It was thought that the French were mostly rural, backwards people who had no interest in business. Additionally, business was done in English, which prevented many entrepreneurial Québécois from participating. In the 1960s the Quebec government invested in Quebec companies, and gave the French business community the confidence and resources to compete with their English-speaking counterparts. Now many Quebec companies, such as Bombardier, compete globally.

While not all Québécois seek an independent Quebec, a strong separatist movement (SEPX = 3) has existed since the early 1960s and the "Quiet Revolution" of Quebec nationalism, led by then-Premier Jean Lesage.

The majority of the Québécois support one or more of the three organizations that represent their interests. These organizations serve as traditional political parties through which the Quebecois address their grievances to the government (GOJPA = 2). At the provincial level, the separatist party is the Parti Québécois (PQ). Another party advocating Québécois issues at the provincial level is the Parti Action Démocratique. At the federal level, the Québécois are represented by the Bloc Québécois (BQ). Both the PQ and BQ have enjoyed electoral success with the BQ becoming the Official Opposition from 1993-1997, and the PQ becoming the ruling party in Quebec on numerous occasions, including at present. Beyond (or short of) separatism, these groups call for a new relationship between the rest of Canada and Quebec. Asymmetrical federalism is a term used to describe the increased powers many Québécois politicians hope to achieve. The protection of the French language and culture are also extremely important to the group. France is the only country that has historically supported the Québécois but the French government is constrained to tread lightly so as to avoid offending the Canadian government. Charges of racism have always plagued the Quebecois nationalist movement, and the Quebecois are typically not open to the political desires of non-Quebecois living in Quebec, particularly allophones and Anglophones.

With the awakening of Quebec nationalism in the 1960s came increased political action (PROT60X = 2). Protest increased and in 1970 escalated to terrorist activity and an assassination (REBEL70X = 2) by the now defunct Quebec Liberation Front (FLQ). The Canadian government responded by enacting the War Measures Act, briefly suspending civil liberties and some basic freedoms. Since that time there have been no subsequent acts of violence and, while always present, protest is almost always small in scale (PROT03 = 1). However, the election of a provincial government in 2003 that was not sympathetic to separatist beliefs saw an increase in protest against the government (PROT04-06 = 3).

In 1982, Canada passed the Constitution Act, which repatriated Canada's Constitution from Britain, which contained 2 major innovations: a bill of rights and a mechanism for amending the Constitution. All of Canada's provinces except Quebec approved and the Constitution went into effect over Quebec's objections. Quebec demanded widespread powers not granted in the new Constitution, particularly in the sensitive education and immigration areas as well as its traditional veto over key constitutional changes. Despite several attempts to make concessions to Quebec in order to get it to approve the 1982 Constitution, these issues remain outstanding.

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References

Keesings Record of World Events. Various reports. 1990-1995.

Lamont, Lansing. 1994. Breakup: The Coming End of Canada and the Stakes for America. New York: W.W. Norton & Co.

Louder, Dean L. & Eric Waddell eds. 1993. French America: Mobility, Identity, and Minority Experience Across the Continent, translated by Franklin Philip. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press.

LexisNexis. Various reports. 1990-2006.

Statistics Canada. Various reports. 2000-2006. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/start-debut-eng.html.

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