Assessment for Catalans in Spain

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

There is no evidence to suggest that Catalans are likely to use militant strategies in their dealings with the Spanish government. All their interactions with the central government contain elements of power sharing or deal brokering. Their representatives cooperate with other parties in the Spanish parliament in seeking concessions for the Catalan region, and in 2005 the two main Catalan parties joined the coalition government of Spanish Prime Minister Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Zaperto reciprocated by supporting a new Statute of Autonomy for Catalonia, which in 2006 gave the region greater autonomy in taxation and legal affairs. Catalans view their dealings with the Spanish in light of an ancient oath between their monarch and the Castilians. This is the principle of "If not, not": "We who are as good as you, swear to you, who are no better than us, to accept you as our king and sovereign lord, provided you observe all our liberties and laws - but if not, not." So long as they continue to have economic prosperity, regional autonomy, and effective parliamentary representation, there are no incentives for a resumption of terrorism.

There is always the possibility of future protests however. The Catalans possess few of the risk factors for protest, such as political and cultural restrictions, violent repression, support from separatist kindred groups, etc. However, due to their strong identity and fierce autonomy, the Catalans will watch what concessions the Spanish government grants the Basques, and protest any concessions that they do not receive. There remains a sizable minority of Catalans—about 16 percent in 2005—that support full independence from Spain. Occasionally, these separatists will stage large protests in Barcelona. In general however, the Catalans are satisfied with their increased autonomy, and the risk of violence—even from separatists—is minimal.

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Analytic Summary

The Catalans inhabit one of Spain's semi-autonomous regions (as do the Basques). They live mainly in their historic homeland of Catalonia in the northeastern corner of Spain, centered at the capital city of Barcelona (GROUPCON06 = 3). They speak a Romance language, called Catalan, that is distinct from Spanish (LANG06 = 1), and have long had a certain level of prosperity and autonomy (the Franco period being an obvious exception) throughout their history in the region, which was formalized by a Statute of Autonomy in 1931 (YEARWT = 3). Catalonia is one of the wealthiest regions in Spain, and the Catalans are not subject to any political (POLDIS06 = 0), economic (ECODIS06 = 0), or cultural restrictions (CULPO106 = 0) (CULPO206 = 0). There is no evidence of any government repression against Catalan civilians. (REPGENCIV06 = 0)

The Catalans have a very strong sense of group identity, which is manifested in many organizations that advocate Catalan rights. Following 1976, pro-Catalan political parties flourished, won representation in the national Parliament, and in 1980 won an overwhelming majority in the legislative assembly of the new Autonomous Community of Catalonia. The non-violent nature of Catalan nationalism paved the way for smoother negotiations with the central government over the transfer of powers to the regional government. The key organizations are Convergence and Unity (CiU) - a political party that seeks greater autonomy - as well as the Socialists’ Party of Catalunya (PSC) and the more radical Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which advocates for full Catalan independence (SEPX06 = 3) (GOJPA06 = 2). The militant organization Terra Lliure (Free Land) has not been active in recent years, nor are the Catalans in conflict with any other groups in Spain (INTERCON06 = 0). This is a change from the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the Basque terror group ETA attacked Catalan targets. Beyond the calls for more autonomy or full independence, the Catalans are concerned with the protection of their culture and language.

The Catalans make full use of the conventional political opportunities open to them. However, protests for greater autonomy and independence continue sporadically. In 2006, around 125,000 people marched in Barcelona for full Catalan independence (PROT06 = 5). No rebellion has been reported in recent years. (REB06 = 0). This has not always been the case, with large protests in the 1940s escalating to rebellious activity in the 1970s and continuing on through the early 1990s, last occurring in 1992. Fairly large protests in 2000 were directed against Basque violence, not the government.

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References

Conversi, Daniele. 1997. "The Basques, the Catalans, and Spain." Reno: University of Nevada Press.

Guibernau, Montserrat. 2002. "Catalan Nationalism." London: Routledge, Taylor, and Francis Group.

Keating, Michail "Spain: Peripheral Nationalism and State Response" in John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary eds. The Politics of Ethnic Conflict Regulation, Routledge, 1993. pp. 204-25.

Phase I Summary

Lexis/Nexis: Reuters 1990-2006.

Library of Congress. December 1988. "Spain: The Catalans." http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+es0055). 4/4/2007.

US Department of State Human Rights Reports for 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 2001-2003.

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