Assessment for Turks in Germany

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Turks in Germany have few of the risk factors for rebellion. They are not geographically concentrated and recent remedial policies (especially easing of citizenship restrictions) are in place to counter a history of political discrimination. Additionally, Germany is a consolidated democracy. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Turks will act violently against the German government. However, it is likely that political conflicts in Turkey between Islamists and secularists, Kurds and Turks, will continue to be waged by Turkish factions in Germany, sometimes with violent consequences such as political killings. The country is also a way station and place of refuge for political activists from other Middle Eastern countries who may initiate terrorist acts for which Turks might become scapegoats.

The Turks do have several of the risk factors that are likely to sustain protest including political discrimination and cultural restrictions. They also enjoy the support of the Turkish government and political groups in Turkey. The attacks on Turks, and their lack of rights in Germany, have received much international attention in the last decade and this presumably encourages the Turks to continue to protest and keep public scrutiny on Germany. The most important task for German government and society is to speed the incorporation of Turks, and other visible minorities, into German society. Checking xenophobic attacks is part of that process.

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Analytic Summary

Turks began arriving in West Germany as foreign workers in the 1950s with the boom years for this migration being from 1968 to 1974. While they live throughout Germany, most are concentrated in larger urban areas, especially Berlin and Frankfort (GROUPCON = 1). Virtually all are Muslim (BELIEF = 2) which, along with their lifeways (CUSTOM = 1), sets them apart from Germans and sometimes provokes hostility. Their distinct physical appearance makes it easy for Turks to be targeted for discrimination and at times violence (RACE = 1). An estimated 20 to 25 percent belong to Turkey’s Kurdish minority. Most were workers and, with their families, are known in Germany as Gastarbeiter. Early expectations that these workers were temporary and would return to their homelands gave way by the 1980s to the widespread recognition that many would remain as permanent settlers, constituting what some observers characterize as "new ethnic minorities." Federal policies, beginning with the Auslanderstopp of 1973, that were designed to stem the flow of new workers and to encourage repatriation, have instead increased the determination of many Turks and other foreign workers to bring in their families and establish permanent residence.

The Turks have higher birth rates than Germans. Some return to Turkey, often to retire, but at the same time there is a significant influx of others who migrate to escape repression in Turkey or to rejoin families already in Germany. Turks have long faced high barriers to attaining citizenship, and although the barriers were lowered in the 1990s, most recently in 1999, most Turks still cannot or do not seek citizenship and thus continue to be politically marginalized (POLDIS06 = 1). Furthermore, in 2005, a new immigration law was passed, recognizing Germany as a country of immigration. As of 2006, almost one million Turks had gained German citizenship, with an estimated 500,000 registered voters. Two deputies in the Bundestag are of Turkish origin, and three Turks have been elected to the EU parliament (LEGISREP06 = 1).

Turks who have attained citizenship have begun to move up the political and economic ladder, but as a group they are economically disadvantaged and many continue to be employed in the low-paying jobs for which they were originally recruited (ECODIS06 = 2). Cultural restrictions on the Turks mainly take the form of informal social discrimination and complaints about their public practice of Islam. Government repression is uncommon and constrained, for example arrests in 1999 of a few Turkish protestors. No government repression was reported from 2001 through 2003. Repression, primarily linked to Islamist activity, did occur in 2004 and 2005, most notably the expulsion from Germany of Mehtin Kaplan, an Islamist, from Germany, known as the “caliph of Cologne” (REPGENCIV04-05 = 2; REPNVIOL04 = 3).

Turks continue to be the target of xenophobic attacks by skin-heads and right-wing extremists who target all visible minorities, not just Turks. These attacks are often violent and, after a lull in the mid-1990s, their numbers reportedly have risen and caused some fatalities (INTERCON00-04 = 1).

There are many divisions within the Turkish population. First there are generational differences. First-generation Turks are more connected to Turkey than those who were born in Germany, attended German schools, speak German and have no first-hand knowledge of Turkey. The second cleavage is between Turks and Turkish Kurds. At times the two groups have clashed over actions taken by the Turkish government regarding Kurds and at times these clashes have taken a violent turn, although no violence has been reported in recent years (INTRACON00-06 = 0).

Due to the fragmented nature of the Turkish community, it is not surprising that they are represented by numerous groups. Although technically banned, the Turkish Kurds are represented by the PKK, which operates more openly in Germany than in Turkey, where it is banned as a revolutionary organization. More conventional Turkish organizations include Milli Gorus, the Turkish Association of Berlin and Brandenburg, and the Turkish Community of Germany (GOJPA06 = 3). These groups have two basic clusters of grievances with the German government. First, they want greater protection from attacks by right-wingers and skinheads. German police have tended to be reactive, at best, in response to such attacks. The second set of demands is for equal rights. Politically this means easier access to citizenship and the right to hold dual citizenship (POLGR06 = 2). Citizens or not, all Turkish residents get the social and economic benefits provided by the German welfare state. Turks also seek better opportunities economically, which would be facilitated by citizenship (ECGR06 = 1). Many are members of German trade unions, which provide an alternative channel for pursuing their economic concerns. The Turkish government on occasion has encouraged the German government to improve the civil rights of Turks residing in Germany.

While there are no documented acts of militant activity by Turks against the German state (REB06 = 0), there is a long history of protests by the Turks and their supporters beginning in the 1970s (PROT70X= 3). The central issue, past and present, is a demand for protection against xenophobic attacks. However, in recent years, protest has been more muted (PROT02 = 3; PROT06 = 1).

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References

Ashkenasi, Abraham. 1990. "The Turkish Minority in Germany and Berlin." Immigrants and Minorities. 9:3. 303-16.

Horrocks, David and Eva Kolinsky, eds. 1996. Culture and Society in Germany: Turkish Culture in German Society Today. Oxford: Berghahn Books.

Lexis-Nexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

U.S. Department of State. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Germany. 1999-2006.

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