Assessment for Serbs in Macedonia

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The Serbs in Macedonia do not have a history of rebellion or street protest against the government in Skopje. Democratic stability and government reform efforts will most likely limit the possibility of future conflict as well. However, Macedonian Serbs have regularly voiced opposition to policies, and have called on the government to take particular stances on issues, as they did when they discouraged it from supporting Kosovar independence. Although Macedonia has seen scattered violence over the years, the Macedonian Serbs have remained relatively unaffected by the Balkan conflicts, at least compared with Serbs in other parts of the region.

Though there are contentious issues between Serbs and Macedonians, it is insurgent Albanians working with Kosovar groups that have posed the biggest threat to stability in Macedonia. In 2001, the ethnically Albanian National Liberation Army led a rebellion against the government. With the help of the European Union, the government negotiated with the rebels, diffusing tension and resulting in improved status for all minorities. There are still issues to be resolved, but the country, with the help of the EU, has remained committed to democratic reform, boding well for the Serbs and other ethnic groups within its borders.

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Analytic Summary

There are roughly 36,000 Serbs living in Macedonia, constituting 1.78 percent of the total population. They are situated mostly in the northern regions of the country, close to the border with Serbia (GROUPCON = 2). Most Serbs (68 percent) are concentrated in the city of Skopje (40 percent) and the municipalities of Kumanovo (25 percent) and Ilinden (3 percent). The rest are dispersed in small numbers throughout the rest of the country. They speak a Slavic language, called Pogled, which is distinct but similar to Macedonian (LANG = 2). They share with the majority Macedonian population the same Eastern Orthodox Christianity (BELIEF = 1; RELIGS1 = 2), but the relationship between the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) and the Macedonian Orthodox Church (MOC) has been historically strained, and remains so.

In the past, Macedonian Serbs were considered a partially advantaged minority because they exerted authority over the former Yugoslavia since the beginning of the 20th century. First they dominated politics in the framework of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. Serbian dominance ended with the occupation of Macedonia by Nazi Germany in 1941. After WWII, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was created and a pan-Yugoslav identity was propagated unsuccessfully by Communist leader Josip Broz Tito. During communist rule, Macedonians studied Serbo-Croatian and had close ties with Belgrade. Eventually, Slobodan Milosevic's extreme Serbian nationalism led all the republics in the Yugoslav federation to declare independence. In 1991, Croatia, Slovenia and Macedonia declared independence. Bosnia quickly followed in 1992. Finally, in May 2006, Montenegro seceded after a successful referendum. The final republic of Serbia declared itself the successor state to the disbanded state of Serbia-Montenegro and established a Serbian constitution in October 2006.

Generally, Serbs are represented at local levels of political administration as well as in the parliament (POLDIS06 = 0; ECDIS06 = 0). There were two Serbs in the 120-seat parliament, but no Serbs in higher positions of the executive branch or in the cabinet (LEGISREP06 = 1, EXECREP06 = 0). The main Serbian political party, The Democratic Party of Serbs in Macedonia (DPSM), maintains close relations with Belgrade. The DPSM was responsible for organizing the protests against NATO during the 1999-2000 military actions in Kosovo. Recently, it formed part of the ruling government coalition Together for Macedonia that won the 2002 September elections. Other coalition members include the Democratic Alliance of Macedonia SDSM, the Liberal Democratic Party, and VMRO-Macedonia.

There are three other political parties that represent Macedonian Serbs. In 2001, the Democratic Alliance of Serbs in Macedonia was formed. It was founded to support resolutions to the problems faced by Serbs in Macedonia, and to help Serbs realize their constitutional and legal rights. The new party established local councils in areas of Macedonia with Serbian populations. Their goal was to diversify political life by ensuring Serbs have at least two parliamentary deputies, regardless of election outcomes, a proposition supported by international bodies. The DPSM asked the DSS to merge with it in 2003, but the DSS declined the offer. In 2002, the Democratic Party for the Orthodox Unity of Serbs and Macedonians (DPPJSM) was founded and in 2003 it joined the biggest parliamentary opposition coalition, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE).

The newest party, The Radical Party of Serbs in Macedonia (RSSM), was formed in January 2006, although its official status remains unclear. The Court of the First Instance claimed it had rejected the party's registration because it did not elucidate its party's platform. Dragisa Miletic, the leader of the DPPJSM, claimed the registration had gone through under the name of the Radical Party of Serbs in Macedonia. The new party's official leader, Vojislav Seselj, remained jailed in The Hague at the time of the party formation in Macedonia. The Radical Party of Serbs had plans to support Miletic in the upcoming parliamentary elections because they themselves would not participate. Miletic announced he would remain with his original party, but the two parties considered themselves "close."

One group, the Democratic Association of Serbs (DAS) in Macedonia, has claimed that the only right they have in Macedonia is freedom of movement. The DAS has sought the help of the Serbian government to improve freedom of speech, allow schools in the Serbian language and increase religious freedom (POLGR06 = 1; ECGR06 = 1; CULGR06 = 1). Although some progress has been made in these areas, hurdles remain. The Serbian and Macedonian governments have negotiated the status of minorities within their borders. Successful bilateral agreements have been initiated and it is likely both governments will continue to engage one another.

In the 1990s, the Serb minority in Macedonia engaged in low-level protest against their mistreatment by police and government authorities. In 1994, the Democratic Party of Serbs alluded to wanting a referendum on joining Serbia-Montenegro, but no rebellion against the government was reported, and no autonomy or secession movements have been active in the last decade (REBEL90X = 0, SEPX06 = 3). Throughout the early 1990s, Serbs refused to accept the status of a minority or ethnic group, which they thought would thereby affirm the Macedonian nation-state. In their rejection of the Macedonian nation-state, they wanted Macedonia to be considered a state of all of its citizens, a tenant they still uphold.

The explosion of the Kosovo Crisis in 1999 propagated itself in Macedonia, where the relationship between Serbs and Albanians deteriorated, mirroring the relationship they maintained in Kosovo. As a result of the war in Kosovo, several thousand Serb refugees arrived in Macedonia in 1999; most have repatriated to Kosovo or Serbia. During the war, the Macedonian Serbs accused the Skopje government of being partial to the Albanians (PROT00 = 1). They also demanded that the Macedonian government protect them from ethnic Albanians, as incidents occurred in 2000 and 2001 (INTERCON00-01 = 1). Sporadic intercommunal conflict continues to affect the Serbs, generally in the form of mobs attacking civilian and religious Serb figures (INTERCON04-05 = 1).

Since the containment of the crisis, Macedonian Serbs and their political leaders have regularly spoken out against Kosovar independence. The Democratic Party of Serbs in Macedonia (DPSM) has verbally protested NATO's presence in Kosovo. The DPSM has also repeatedly asked the Macedonian government to curb any political action by ethnic Albanians within Macedonian borders that supports Kosovar independence.

Serbs have diligently pursued increased cultural rights (CULGR04-06 = 1) and there have been recent gains in language rights. Since 2003, the constitution allows primary and secondary education in the languages of ethnic minorities, and the government has upheld this provision. Primary education was available for Serbian speakers and the number of minorities attending secondary school in their ethnic tongues steadily increased throughout 2004. Additionally, there are TV and radio programs in Serbian, sponsored by the Macedonian government. In 2004, a privately funded Serbian language newspaper was launched. It was heralded as the first Serbian-language paper since Macedonia's independence, and noted for appearing more than 60 years after the last edition of a newspaper in Serbian in Macedonia.

For the most part, Serbs did not face discrimination or government repression, but their freedom of religion has been somewhat restricted. In perhaps the most contentious issue facing the Serbs in recent years, there have been reports of police harassment against followers of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) in Macedonia (REPGENCIV06 = 2; REPNVIOL05 = 2). With the multiple arrests, trials and imprisonments of Archbishop Jovan of Ohrid (also known as Zoran Vraniškovski), an affiliate of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Macedonia, the tension has escalated. Church members have reported police harassment and logged formal complaints of religious discrimination with the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights. The ethnic Macedonian Archbishop has been considered a prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International.

There is a long history of tension between the MOC and the SOC regarding the status of the MOC, which has yet to be recognized by churches in the Eastern Orthodox Communion. Furthermore, the Serbian and Macedonian governments have stoked the conflict. In early 2006, the Serbian government was exposed for controversially providing funding for the SOC in Macedonia. Likewise, the Macedonian government has provided public funds for MOC church projects and used religious laws against the SOC. Additionally, the government demolished a SOC church in October 2004, despite allowing other illegally built churches. In 2005, despite the fact that permits are not necessary for religious activities conducted in private homes, police interrupted services of the Orthodox Archbishopric of Ohrid being held in a private home in Dracevo (REPNVIOL05 = 2). The Law on Religious Communities and Groups states only one religious group may be registered per affiliation and since the Macedonian Orthodox Church is already registered, officials have used this law to reject formal status of the Orthodox Ohrid Archbishopric. While reforms have begun to improve the religious rights of minorities in Macedonia, the troubled relationship between the SOC and the MOC presents a major hurdle for normalizing the status of the Orthodox Ohrid Archbishopric in Macedonia.

Despite the MOC-SOC conflict, the relationship between Macedonian Serbs and the Skopje government has been steadily improving. As long as Serbs continue to uphold their moderate demands and nonviolent tactics, and as long as the government continues to democratize and engage the interests of various ethnic groups, conflict will be minimized as issues are discussed and reforms enacted. Kosovo remains a wild card in relations between Serbs, Albanians and the government, but EU and NATO engagement in the crisis mitigates the likelihood of drastic escalation.

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References

Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. 2008. "Macedonia: International Religious Freedom Report 2007." http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/irf/2007/90187.htm, accessed 9/16/2008.

Christian Science Monitor. 4/12/2006, "Jailed priest pushes for religious freedom."

CIA World Factbook. 2008. Macedonia.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mk.html, accessed 9/16/2008.

Freedom House. 2007. Serbia. http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&year=2007&country=7334, accessed 9/20/2008.

Gordon, Raymond G., Jr., ed. 2005. Ethnologue: Languages of the World, Fifteenth edition. Dallas: SIL International. Online version: http://www.ethnologue.com/, accessed 9/16/2008.

IFES.org. Election Results, September 2002. http://www.electionguide.org/election.php?ID=913, accessed 9/28/2008.

Lexis/Nexis. Various news reports. 1993-2006.

Migration Information Source. 2007. "Macedonia: At a Quiet Crossroads". http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?ID=608, accessed 9/17/2008.

Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office. 2002. Census of Population, Households and Dwellings in the Republic of Macedonia. http://www.stat.gov.mk/pdf/kniga_13.pdf, accessed 9/16/2008.

US Department of State. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Macedonia. 1993-2006.

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