Assessment for Croats in Serbia

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

There is little risk of Croats in Serbia rebelling against the government of Serbia. While the Croats are primarily concentrated in Vojvodina around Subotica and are fairly well organized, they are a very small minority in Serbia. They occasionally voice verbal protest against the central government, but there is little risk of these escalating in the future. The government exercises no official repression of Croats in Serbia and has established a council on national minorities to ensure that they are adequately protected. While the government of Croatia occasionally voices rhetorical support for Croats in Serbia and has signed an agreement for the protection of national minorities with Serbia, it takes great pains not to interfere in the domestic affairs of its neighbors. So, while Croats would certainly find safe haven in Croatia if there were a need, the message is clear that any Croat-initiated violence in Serbia, or anywhere else in the region for that matter, would be condemned. Croats experience mild informal discrimination in Serbia, but this is mostly economic and they claim in some cases cultural, but there is no official effort by the government to restrict their political participation or enjoyment of cultural heritage.

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Analytic Summary

The majority (approximately 70 percent) of Croats in Serbia live in the autonomous region of Vojvodina and specifically in and around Subotica, which borders Croatia, but they do not constitute a majority in any region larger than an urban area (GROUPCON = 1). There is a smaller concentration of Croats in Kotor, which also boarders Croatia in the south near the coast. Croats are Slavs as is the majority Serb population (RACE = 0). While the Croats claim that their language is a separate distinct language, this claim is primarily a political one and most linguists consider the differences between Serbian and Croatian dialects to be minimal (LANG = 0). Croats and Serbs do differ in their majority religion, however. Croats are traditionally Roman Catholic (RELIGS1 = 1) while Serbs are traditionally Serbian Orthodox (BELIEF = 1). For most of the 20th century, Croatia and Serbia and several other now independent countries were joined in a federal republic the most recent of which was the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which began to break apart violently in the early 1990s. Because Croatia and Serbia share a border in the north and Montenegro and Croatia share a border in the south, there was natural cross migration and certainly exact borders changed over the years before the establishment of Yugoslavia.

During 2004-2006, Croats made up a very small minority within Serbia, almost certainly less than one percent. Croats face informal discrimination in hiring both in the private sector and among the civil service (ECDIS04-06 = 3), and they have a higher unemployment rate than the majority population. In localities where they make up a significant minority of the population, they still face underrepresentation among local governments (POLDIS04-06 = 2). However, the central government has signed a minority rights accord that was pending implementation at the end of 2006.

Croats complain that they are not adequately represented and that their culture is suppressed. They continually campaign for Croatian textbooks to be used in schools with Croatian students and for Croatia radio and TV programs. The central government has attempted to address some of these requests and has devoted funds to the issue (CULGR04-06 = 2). Croats also complain that they face discrimination in employment especially in civil service hiring (ECGR04-06 = 1). Croats also dispute the distinctness of the Bunjevici as a minority and assert that they are really Croats but that the government wants to diminish the numbers of Croats in Serbia for political reasons (POLGR04-06 = 2).

There are numerous parties that represent the Croats: Democratic Alliance of Croats, Vojvodina Movement, Croatian Civil Initiative, and the Youth Initiative (GOJPA = 2). In 2002 the Croat National Council was founded as an umbrella political party to represent all ethnic Croats. Officials from Croatia occasionally visit Serbia and usually meet with representatives of the Croat minority in Serbia, but the support of Croatia is almost exclusively rhetorical.

The Croats in Serbia continuously push for more government acknowledgement of their status as a minority and concessions on government-funded efforts to support them. The Croats occasionally protest the central government and make statements but that is generally the extent of their activity in opposition (PROT06 = 1). During the conflict in the early 1990s, there were atrocities committed toward civilians of the other nationalities by both Croats and Serbs. Between 2004 and 2006, there were several trials of the perpetrators of these crimes. One significant case that was ongoing during this period was that of the Ovcara case, in which members of the Yugoslav National Army (JNA) interned Croatian civilians and committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. There is continued tension between the Croats and Serbs and much stereotyping and discrimination, but for the most part there has been only isolated incidents of limited violence between the two communities (CCGROUPSEV104-06 = 1). Additionally, the government has not repressed the Croats in recent years (REPGENCIV04-06 = 0).

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References

Burg, Steven and Paul Shoup. 1999. The War in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Ethnic Conflict and International Intervention. New York: M. E. Sharp.

Markotich, Stan. 11/19/1993. "Vojvodina: A Political Powder Keg." RFE/Rl Research Report. 2:46. 13-18.

Oltay, Edith 12/3/1993. "Hungarians Under Political Pressure in Vojvodina." RFE/RL Research Report. 2:48. 43-48.

Ramac, Mihal. 10/1995. "Serbs from All Lands in One Province: Refugees Change the Ethnic Map." War Report. 37. 18-19.

Republic of Serbia, Republic Statistics Office. "Final Results of ohe Census 2002: Population by national or ethnic groups, gender and age groups in the Republic of Serbia, by municipalities." http://www.statserb.sr.gov.yu/zip/esn31.pdf, accessed 2/13/2008

LexisNexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

U.S. Department of State. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Serbia. 2001 – 20063.

Voivodina Center for Human Rights (VHRC). 9/2007. "Alternative Report submitted pursuant to Article 25 Paragraph 1 of the Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities." http://www.minelres.lv/coe/report/ShadowReport_Voivodina_VHRC.pdf, accessed 3/9/2008.

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