Assessment for Bosniaks in Bosnia

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Muslims in Bosnia have a low risk of rebellion, yet the possibility of protests remains high. The situation in Bosnia is improving, although still quite volatile. Bosnia has a long history of ethnic tensions, and its unique structure creates challenges for its constituent minority groups. The 1995 Dayton Accords set up two entities combining to create one federal Bosnian government. The two entities, the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, frequently clash over issues such as refugee return and war criminal prosecution. The Repulika Srpska (RS) is predominately Serb, and in this region Croats and Bosniaks experience significant oppression. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation) is predominately Croat and Muslim Bosniak. In this region, Serbs experience significant discrimination. However, since most Serbs live in the RS and most Muslims and Croats in the Federation, each minority group as a whole experiences low levels of discrimination. The federal structure has become more efficient in recent years, but the fundamental differences between the minority groups and ethnic tensions remain.

There are several reasons the risk of rebellion by Muslims is low in Bosnia. Muslims are represented in the Bosnian government and have their own president. In addition, there are far too many international observers in Bosnia to allow large scale rebellion to take place. The more likely scenario is a continuation of the verbal opposition and political resistance that were seen from 1999 to 2003. With peace resulting from democracy, a group is able to protest against policies that it does not agree with. As demonstrated by recent protests, there are issues that Muslims feel strongly about, and the failing Bosnian economy and refugee problems have not been solved. While the equality of the three ethnic groups has been established institutionally, the group which is most victimized appears to be the Bosnian Muslims. As long as this is the case, the chances of Muslim protest will remain high.

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Analytic Summary

Prior to the conflict in the 1990s, the demographic breakdown of BiH looked like what Cyrus Vance called “leopard spots,” with the three constituent peoples (Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs) living together in various proportions throughout the whole of BiH. That is not to say that there were not deep historical tensions but that during the socialist authoritarian rule, these tensions were suppressed, and everyone was encouraged to adopt an identity of a Yugoslav. The cultural history of the Bosniaks and the region in general is long and subject to political manipulation, but it is generally agreed that the three peoples are roughly from the same stock of people (RACE = 0) while their religions were shaped by the various dominating empires that occupied the region. Bosniaks are primarily Sunni Muslims (RELIGS1 = 5), Croats primarily Roman Catholic and Serbs are Orthodox. Also controversial is the language spoken by the constituent peoples. Bosniaks (as do the others) claim that Bosnian is a separate language from Serbian and Croatian. To be sure, there are differences in accent and some vocabulary among people from various parts of the BiH; however, most linguists consider them differences in dialect at most (LANG = 0).

Under the 1995 General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (“Dayton Accords”), the Bosniaks are guaranteed one member of the state three-part presidency and five members (1/3) in the House of Peoples at the state level. The Dayton Accords also set up two entities, the Republika Srpska (RS) and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation), as well as the Brcko District. The RS has a majority Serb population and roughly approximates the control of territory the Serbs had control of at the end of the war in 1995. Bosniaks living in the RS face discrimination and sporadic violence (CCGROUPSEV104-06 = 3). The Federation is composed mainly of Bosniaks and Croats. In the areas where Bosniaks are in the minority, they claim discrimination, and there are instances of intergroup violence between both Croats and Bosniaks. In areas of Bosniak control, there are instances of conflict between Bosniaks and Serbs and Bosniaks and Croats.

Bosniaks represent a plurality of the constituent peoples in BiH, comprising approximately 48% of the total population (GPRO06 = 48). Prior to the conflict in the 1990s, Bosniaks were concentrated in northwestern and central BiH and along the eastern border with Serbia, but they also comprised a significant minority in other regions, particularly in Banja Luka, Prijedor and Mostar. As there has been no census since 1991, exact numbers are not available, but it is generally accepted that Bosniaks are now concentrated in central BiH, especially in Sarajevo, and in the northwestern part of the country.

Bosniaks generally complain about discrimination in areas were they are in the minority. They have been supportive of Constitutional change and stand to benefit from almost any outcome as their current allotment of seats in state institutions is lower than their proportion of the population. Bosniaks complain that they face discrimination in employment (ECGR06 = 1) and areas in which they are in the minority. They also continue to be incensed by attacks on mosques and Islamic leaders (CULPO104-06=1).

Bosniaks are fairly well organized and have several strong political parties (Party of Democractic Action/Stranke Demokratske Akcije; Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bosniak Peoples' Party; and Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party-Sefer Halilovic) as well as NGOs and civic organizations (GOJPA06 = 2). Nationalism among Bosniak political parties is relatively pronounced, however, there does not appear to be fractionalization among them, with occasional exceptions (INTRACON04=1). Islamic countries have assisted Bosniaks in the past in rebuilding mosques and providing humanitarian assistance, however, such assistance appears to have dropped off as BiH has recovered. The charity Muslim Aid did continue to fund development projects for Bosniaks in BiH during 2004-2006 (STAMATSUP04-06 = 1).

Bosniaks are a significant part of the BiH government and are a plurality of the population. They experience discrimination in areas in which they are a minority, as do the other two constituent peoples (POLGR04-06 = 1; ECGR04-06 = 1; CULGR04-06 = 2). Bosniaks do not experience repression by the government, however, if concerns about the spread of radical Islam and terrorism increase (REPVIOL05 = 3), there could be an increase in repressive activity by the government and the international presence in BiH directed toward Bosniaks.

Bosniaks have historically been quite reluctant to engage in anti-state protests. The communist regime that controlled Yugoslavia prevented most actions of this sort from occurring. Bosniaks first began to protest in the early 1990s as Yugoslavia was falling apart (PROT90X = 2). More recently, larger demonstrations have been seen as Bosniaks began to express their frustration with the refugee problems, the poor economy, and low wages (PROT99 = 4), but protest activity has been restricted to scattered symbolic resistance and political organizing in recent years (PROT04, PROT05 = 2). During the civil war, the Muslims were involved in large scale militant activity (REB95X = 7), but since that time there has been little or no such activity (REB04 = 0, REB05-06 = 1).

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References

Burg, Stephen and Paul Shoup. The War in Bosnia-Herzegovina: ethnic conflict and intervention. New York: M. E. Sharp. 1999

Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 8/18/2000. Decision U-5/98 III. http://www.ccbh.ba/eng/, accessed 10/29/2007.

Helsinki Committee of Bosnia and Herzegovina. "Report on the Status of Human Rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Analysis for the Period January – December 2004." http://www.bh-hchr.org/Reports/reportHR2005.htm, accessed 11/16/2007.

Lexis-Nexis. Various reports. 1993-2006.

Muslim Aid. Annual Report 2006. http://ramadan.muslimaid.org/upload/docs/625/lr_aw_ma_ar_06_final_design.pdf, accessed 11/10/2007.

Office of the High Representative and EU Special Representative. 12/14/1995. General Framework Agreement for Peace. http://www.ohr.int/dpa/default.asp?content_id=379, accessed 10/30/07.

Party of Democratic Action. Various documents. http://www.sda.ba/sekcije.php?cat_id=1, accessed 10/30/2007.

State Department. various years. Annual Reports on Human Rights Practices: Bosnia and Herzegovina. Available online at http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/.

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