Assessment for Adzhars in Georgia

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The situation of the Adzharians exhibit only some of the factors that suggest a risk of violent conflict, such as their high group concentration, and the willingness of Georgia's central government under Saakashvili to use brinkmanship for its domestic policy agenda. However, since a near violent conflagration in 2004, when Adzharia's long-term leader, Aslan Abashidze, was removed from power, the prospects for peace appear much more enduring. Abashidze exhibited a highly independent and authoritarian leadership style with military capabilities and a foreign (Russia) supporter that maintained a military base near the capital, Batumi. Since his departure, a new regional parliament has been elected; military groups have been brought under central state control; and Russia has agreed to close its military base. Further, no demonstrations or violent activity has been exhibited since the end of 2004.

Georgia's central government was elected, in part, on a commitment to reunite the country. While Adzharia appears to have overcome its most significant hurdle in that process, it is unclear how events in the other two separatist regions could affect relations between Adzhars and Tbilisi in the future. Nevertheless, Adzharia has defied repeated predictions of violence in the past, and this bodes well for the Adzhars.

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Analytic Summary

The Adzhars are a people dwelling in the autonomous region of Adzharia in south-western Georgia along the Black Sea (GROUPCON = 3). They are neither ethnoculturally nor linguistically distinct from ethnic Georgians, but Adzhars nonetheless possess a strong group identity. While traditionally Muslim, stemming back to a period when the region was under Ottoman control, there is evidence that large numbers of the group have converted to Orthodox Christianity since the end of the Soviet Union, although exact figures are not available.

From the time of Georgia's independence from the Soviet Union until 2004, Adzharia enjoyed what was in effect de facto independence from Georgia; therefore, no political or economic discrimination was recorded (POLDIS03= 0; ECDIS03 = 0). However, the strategy they used to achieve that independence was quite different from the other autonomous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where bloody rebellions broke out that have yet to be fully settled. By contrast, despite the extreme turbulence of post-Soviet Georgian politics, Aslan Abashidze maintained Adzharia as an island of stability. Since becoming leader of Adzharia in 1991 within a local political structure that remained Soviet and Communist, Abashidze demonstrated virtuoso political leadership. Unlike the rulers of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Abashidze was careful not to challenge, even rhetorically, the territorial integrity of the Georgian state; further, the autonomy he did demand for Adzharia was not based on self-determination. In fact, even when charting an independent course from both the Gamsakhurdia and Shevardnadze regimes, he consistently denied that his government harbored any separatist agenda. This public position, coupled with the severe weakness of the Georgian government (since 1991 battered by one civil and two ethnic wars), made Shevardnadze willing to allow Abashidze wide latitude, including allowing Adzharia to declare itself a free economic zone in November 1994.

Most remarkably for a Muslim leader of an autonomous region, Abashidze emerged during the late 1990s as one of Georgia's most popular politicos. In the April 2000 elections, Abashidze even mounted a strong opposition to Shevardnadze in the nationwide presidential race. In a pre-election deal, Abashidze agreed to drop out of the race in exchange for full republic status for Adzharia, and some saw him as a possible successor to Shevarnadze. In May 2000, Georgia officially became a federation, and it was widely hoped that this would set a peaceful precedent that Abkhazia and South Ossetia could follow to settle their conflicts. (Thus far the "republic status" option has not proven attractive to either group, however).

After Shevardnadze's unexpected departure from power during Georgia's 2003 "Rose Revolution" that brought Saakashvili to power, the relationship between Batumi and Tbilisi came under strain. Saakashvili demanded the right for his political party to campaign in the Adzharian region, which was rejected by Abashidze. By May 2004, Georgian troops began to amass along Adzharian's border and Abashidze ordered the bridges connecting the autonomous republic to the rest of the country to be destroyed (REB04 = 3). Russia intervened at the 11th hour with an envoy, and Abashidze, along with many of his family members, agreed to leave immediately for a life of exile in Russia. Elections to the regional parliament soon followed and Saakashvili's party was the clear victor (28 of 30 seats) in what were broadly deemed free and fair elections.

The dominance of Abashidze's political machine until 2004 meant that his departure left a power vacuum, and Saakashvili's appointment of several individuals from Tbilisi to high-level positions in the regional capital have caused some resentment among the local elite. Further, Tbilisi has ordered the arrest of several Adzhariana who were closely connected to Abashidze's regime (REPNVIOL04-05 = 3). Nevertheless, Adzharia has been re-integrated into Georgia's fold without serious complications, and Saakashvili has allowed the province to retain its autonomous status. However, the degree of this autonomy in practice will only become apparent over time.

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References

Council of Europe. 9/13/2001. "Honoring of obligations and commitments by Georgia."

Committee on the Honouring of Obligations and Commitments by Member States of the Council of Europe (Monitoring Committee), Doc. 9191.

The Economist. Various reports. 2004-2006.

Freedom House. 2003. Nations in Transit.

International Crisis Group. Various reports on Georgia. 2003-2006. www.crisisgroup.org.

Lexis-Nexis. Various news reports. 2001-2006.

Matveeva, Anna. 2003. "Minorities in the South Caucasus." Working Group on Minorities, Commission on Human Rights.

Mateeva, Anna. 2002. "The South Caucasus: Nationalism, Conflict and Minorities." Minority Rights Group International Report.

Nodia, Ghia. 2001. "Georgia's Membership in the Council of Europe: Achievements and Failures." Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development; compiled for United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Pelkmans, Mathijs. 2002. "Religion, Nation and State in Georgia: Christian

Expansion in Muslim Ajaria." Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs. 22:2.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Various reports. 2004-2006

Suny, Ronald Grigor. 1994. The Making of the Georgian Nation, 2nd Edition. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.

Toft, Monica Duffy. 2003. The Geography of Ethnic Violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

U.S. State Department. Country Reports on Human Rights Reports: Georgia. 2001-2006.

U.S. State Department. International Religious Freedom Report: Georgia. 2001-2003.

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