Assessment for Russians in Georgia

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Russians in Georgia are unlikely to initiate political action or to face repression from the Georgian state in the near future. They are not highly organized, not regionally concentrated and do not have a strong, cohesive group identity. There is neither a history of rebellion by ethnic Russians, significant conflict between Russians and the other groups in Georgia, nor repression by the various de facto Georgian regional governments.

Nevertheless, fortunes have shown to change quickly here over the past 20 years. Continuing violence and unrest in neighboring Russian regions of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia still have the potential to destabilize almost any government in the region. Further, a renewal of warfare in either of Georgia's breakaway republics may also endanger the welfare of ethnic Russians in Georgia, depending on how Moscow responds to the conflicts. Georgia has (justifiably) accused Russia of supporting the Abkhaz and South Ossetians in an effort to exercise leverage over Tblisi. In this scenario, ethnic Russians in Georgia may find themselves victims of larger geopolitical contests that are being played out in the Caucasus. Recently, a 2006 dispute between Russia and Georgia over Georgia’s arrest and expulsion of four Russian diplomats it accused of spying led to the mass expulsion of ethnic Georgians from the Russian Federation. However, at least this time, Georgia did not respond in kind, and relations between Georgians and Russians within Georgia itself appears not to have been affected within the country. The 2008 conflict, with the Georgian government on one side and the Russian government and the breakaway governments of South Ossetia and Abkhazia also was a potential flashpoint for actions against ethnic Russians in Georgia.

The ultimate guarantor of the safety of the Russians in Georgia, as well as in all the other former Soviet states, is the Russian military presence just hours away. Moscow's concern for its kindred minorities abroad has been high, and as long as it remains so, the likelihood of large-scale, violent mistreatment by Georgia of its Russian minority is fairly remote.

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Analytic Summary

Thousands of Russians suddenly found themselves as members of a minority group in Georgia when the Soviet Union collapsed. While many Russians from the newly independent states migrated to Russia in the 1990s, sizeable minorities still exist in most. The Russians in Georgia share many traits with their kindred elsewhere: they are clustered predominantly in urban areas (GROUPCON = 1); they are not highly organized around their ethnicity; they have experienced neither communal conflict (INTERCON01-06 = 0) nor systematic repression since Georgian independence. The fortunes of the Russians in Georgia depend to a large extent upon the relationship of the various governments of Georgia to Moscow. In the break-away republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, their safety is dependent upon the goodwill of the local de facto governments as well as the thousands of Russian peacekeepers overseeing uneasy peace agreements. Thus far, perhaps because the separatist governments court the favor of Moscow, Russian minorities in Georgia have not been subject to significant political, economic or cultural discrimination.

Significant Russian minorities also live in Georgia proper, where they are represented by various cultural organizations, but no explicit political parties, and none of the organizations has a presence in Georgia’s parliament (GOJPA01-06 = 1). After the 2003 "Rose Revolution," a more assertive pro-Georgian political and cultural policy was introduced within the country, leading some minorities to vocally complain about discrimination. Nevertheless, thus far the complaints appear to come from Azeri and Armenian communities and not the Russian community. There remains, therefore, no evidence of political or economic discrimination against the Russian community anywhere in the country (POLDIS01-06 = 0; ECDIS01-06 = 0).

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References

Council of Europe. 9/13/2001. “Honoring of obligations and commitments by Georgia.” Committee on the Honouring of Obligations and Commitments by Member States of the Council of Europe (Monitoring Committee), Doc. 9191.

Freedom House. 2003. Nations in Transit.

International Crisis Group. Various reports on Georgia. 2003-2006. www.crisisgroup.org.

Lexis-Nexis. Various news reports. 2001-2006.

Matveeva, Anna. 2003. “Minorities in the South Caucasus.” Working Group on Minorities, Commission on Human Rights.

Mateeva, Anna. 2002. “The South Caucasus: Nationalism, Conflict and Minorities.” Minority Rights Group International Report.

Nodia, Ghia. 2001. “Georgia's Membership in the Council of Europe: Achievements and Failures.” Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development; compiled for United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Various reports. 2004-2006

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 2005. “Georgia: Information on the Treatment of Ethnic Russians”

U.S. State Department. Country Reports on Human Rights Reports: Georgia. 2001-2006.

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