Assessment for Pashtuns in Afghanistan

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The current Pashtun rebellion in Afghanistan is likely to persist. The Pashtuns are concentrated in a region that straddles the porous Afghan-Pakistani border. The free flow of people and goods between the adjoining Pashtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan benefits the various Pashtun militant organizations involved in the Afghan rebellion by providing them with a refuge where they can rest and rearm. This support of the Afghan Pashtuns sheltered in Pakistan is undoubtedly perpetuating the Afghan rebellion. Meanwhile, the politically and militarily weak Afghan government remains unable to exert control over large swaths of Pashtun territory and is highly dependent on foreign military assistance. The repression of Pashtun civilians by the government is also likely to encourage rebellion.

Pashtun politicians emerged victorious from the presidential and legislative elections of 2004 and 2005, with Pashtun candidates taking the presidency and 113 of 249 seats in the National Assembly. The elections themselves have not quelled the rebellion and, in fact, violence has increased over the last few years. However, programs that offer Pashtun militants (e.g. Taliban) amnesty if they lay down their arms and pledge allegiance to the government have shown some positive results.

Pashtun protests will likely continue at a moderate level and have the potential to worsen in response to sudden, unforeseen events (e.g., a botched military operation that causes significant collateral damage). Negative encounters with foreign military units remain a provocative issue in Afghanistan, especially among the Pashtun population. Sporadic protests by Pashtuns will continue until the government can provide the population with security and economic opportunities. Protest over incompetence and a perceived lack of representation in the central government is another possibility.

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Analytic Summary

The Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, comprising approximately 42 percent of the country's population. They are concentrated in a crescent-shaped region that runs along Afghanistan’s southern and eastern boarders (GROUPCON = 2; GC6B = 2; GC7 = 2). Pashtuns can also be found in enclaves scattered across the north of the country and in the western interior (the result of resettlement policies of Amir Abdul Rahman Khan, r. 1880-1901). The overwhelming majority of Pashtuns are Sunni (Hanafi) Muslims (BELIEF = 0; RELIGS1 = 5) and speak Pashto, although a small number speak Dari (a.k.a. “Afghan Persian”) and practice Twelver Shiism; these Dari speaking Shiite Pashtuns are typically found outside of the regional base, in the aforementioned enclaves or in the larger cities.

Pashtuns are currently and historically the most politically powerful ethnic group in Afghanistan. Pashtun socio-political affairs are dominated by tribal and sub-tribal loyalties, alliances, and conflicts. The anti-soviet mujahedin posses of the 1980s were often divided along tribal lines, and fell to fighting each other and the militias of other ethnic groups once the Soviets withdrew in 1989. Chaos, lawlessness, and the abuses committed by the mujahedin factions in the post-Soviet power vacuum alienated the Pashtun population and led them to support the Taliban, a grassroots Pashtun politico-religious organization promising justice and stability. The Taliban, which first appeared in 1994 in the southern province of Kandahar, originally consisted mainly of young Pashtun madrassa students who had studied in Pakistan and were supported by the Pakistani government. The organization quickly became the most powerful military force in Afghanistan. In 1996 the Taliban captured the Afghan capital, Kabul, and at their peak they controlled about 90 percent of Afghanistan. One of the defining characteristics of the Taliban regime was their draconian variant of Shari`a law that called for severe criminal punishments and imposed rigid codes of conduct on the general population. The Taliban ruled over most of Afghanistan until 2001 when a U.S.-led coalition invaded Afghanistan and toppled the regime. By early 2002, the Taliban was replaced by an interim government led by an ethnic Pashtun, Hamid Karzai.

Since 2001, the Pashtuns have been adversely affected by internal displacement, emigration, and repatriation of refugees. From 2001 to 2003, and again in 2006, Pashtun civilians fled their homes (EMIG06 = 1, DISPLACE06 = 1) in response to fighting between Taliban guerillas and U.S.-led coalition forces, which was concentrated in the Pashtun heartland. This displacement and emigration was overshadowed by the simultaneous inundation of Pashtun refugees returning from camps in western Pakistan. In 2002 the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees began a repatriation program that helped millions of Afghan refugees, many of them Pashtuns, return to Afghanistan after years in Pakistani refugee camps. The majority of these refugees fled to Pakistan during the Soviet occupation of the 1980s; the younger generation of refugees was born and raised in refugee camps and is now being reintegrated into Afghan Pashtun society.

The Pashtuns’ successes in the 2004 and 2005 elections have not changed the perception that their ethnic group is underrepresented in the federal government and specifically in Karzai’s cabinet (POLDIS04-06 = 1). The Pashtuns’ primary grievances relate to this perceived lack of representation in the central government, and the continued presence of U.S. and other foreign forces in the country (POLGR04-06 = 1). Although there do not appear to be any specific cases of Pashtuns complaining about ethnically-based economic discrimination, the dire economic conditions in Afghanistan (e.g. 40% unemployment rate) have undoubtedly affected the population’s opinion of the government.

Pashtuns are represented by a number of political parties and militant organizations (GOJPA04-06 = 4). Official Pashtun parties have been marginalized in recent years by the more active and visible militant organizations. The most prominent and active Pashtun militant organization, the Taliban, is an umbrella organization that includes or is allied with Jeysh-e-Mohammadi, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and the armed political group, Hizb-i-Islami. These organizations have attempted to undermine the Afghan government through assassinations, rocket attacks on urban centers, car bombings, suicide bombings, and ambushes on political and military targets. Pashtun militants are attempting to foster discontent among the Pashtun population by hindering economic development and aid programs. The Taliban also encourage and tax illegal opium poppy production, which undermines the government’s authority and limits the population’s self-sufficiency and independence. The Taliban are most active in the southern and eastern Pashtun regional base, which is contiguous with the Pakistani Pashtun regional base. Pashtun militants do receive support from their Pakistani kinsmen (KINSMILSUP04-06 = 1). Divisions within the Pashtun militant organizations mirror the tribal divisions that exist in the larger Pashtun community. The bifurcation of Hizb-i-Islami into factions led by Hekmatyar and Khalis is evidence of the pugnacious and fractious nature of Pashtun militant organizations. In spite of these divisions, the Pashtun militants share a commitment to fighting the Afghan government and its international backers. Pashtuns are represented in the federal government by President Hamid Karzai (EXECREP04-06 = 1), who won the presidential election in 2004, and by Pashtun legislators who won 113 of the 249 National Assembly seats in the 2005 legislative elections (LEGISREP04-06 = 1). Many of these legislators are affiliated with Pashtun political parties such as Ittehad-e-Islami. Traditional tribal leaders, tribal councils, and militias often represent Pashtun interests at the local and regional levels; the largest Pashtun tribes are the Durrani, Ghilzai, Wardak, Jaji, Tani, Jadran, Mangal, Khugiani, Safi, Mohmand and Shinwari.

In recent years Pashtuns have been involved in protests, rebellions, and intercommunal and intracommunal conflicts. Pashtuns have engaged in moderate levels of protest since the U.S.-led overthrow of the Taliban regime (PROT04-06 = 3), primarily over issues of security and representation. The aforementioned Pashtun militant organizations have continued their rebellion against the Karzai administration (REB04 = 5; REB05-06 = 6). In fact, between 2004 and 2006 there was an upswing in violence that was characterized by larger, more frequent ambushes and bombings, including suicide attacks. Also during this period Pashtun militant organizations began carrying out large scale, coordinated assaults on government interests, some involving dozens or hundreds of guerillas. This guerilla activity was concentrated in, but not limited to, the Pashtun homeland) in the south and east of Afghanistan, where militants captured and held significant swaths of unguarded or lightly guarded territory. Pashtuns continue to be involved in intercommunal conflict with Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras (INTERCON=1), although the situation does not appear to be as volatile as in the past, with most violence directed at the government and international organizations. The most serious incidents of intercommunal conflict in recent years involved Tajiks in western Afghanistan (Heart) and Hazaras in central Afghanistan.

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References

Agence France Presse. 1/17/2004. "Ambush on government convoy leaves three Taliban, three Afghans dead"

Agence France Presse. 5/12/2005. "Worst anti-US protests spread across Afghanistan, three more dead."

Amnesty International. 4/19/2007. "All who are not friends, are enemies: Taleban abuses against civilians" http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGASA110012007?open&of=ENG-AFG, accessed 10/19/07.

Associated Press. 3/20/2004. "In hunt for al-Qaida, border escape routes remain open."

BBC Monitoring International Reports. 9/25/2006. "Afghan observer predicts more protests against foreign troops."

Human Rights Watch. 7/2006. "Background: Afghanistan Since the Fall of the Taliban." http://www.hrw.org/reports/2006/afghanistan0706/3.htm, accessed 10/19/2007.

International Crisis Group. 2/23/2005. "Afghanistan: Getting Disarmament Back on Track." http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/south_asia/b035_afghanistan_getting_disarmament_back_on_track_web.pdf, accessed 11/12/2007.

International Crisis Group. 5/15/2006. "Afghanistan's New Legislature: Making Democracy Work." http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/south_asia/116_afghanistan_new_legislature_making_democracy_work.pdf, accessed 11/11/2007.

International Crisis Group. 11/02/2006. "Countering Afghanistan's Insurgency: No Quick Fixes." http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/south_asia/123_countering_afghanistans_insurgency.pdf, accessed 11/01/2007.

International Crisis Group. 3/30/2004. "Elections and Security in Afghanistan." http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/south_asia/040330_elections_n_security_in_afghan_small_map.pdf, accessed 11/01/2007

International Crisis Group. 11/30/2005. "Rebuilding the Afghan State: The European Union's Role." http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/south_asia/107_rebuilding_the_afghan_state_the_european_union_s_role.pdf, accessed 11/14/2007

LexisNexis. Various articles. 1998-2006.

Library of Congress. 1997. Library of Congress Country Studies: Afghanistan. http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+af0037), accessed 10/16/2007.

The New York Times. 10/21/2005. "Taliban Step Up Afghan Bombings and Suicide Attacks."

The New York Times. 5/14/2005. "Muslims' Anti-American Protests Spread From Afghanistan."

Pakistan Newswire. 1/18/2004. The Afghan Constitution and Bush's re-election.

Radio Free Europe. 5/24/2006. "Afghanistan: Upsurge Of Violence Reflects New Taliban Tactics"

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). 5/06/2005. "Afghan repatriation from Pakistan exceeds 50,000 as Jolie visits." http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/HMYT-6C5LNY?OpenDocument&cc=afg, accessed 10/19/2007.

USA Today. 7/26/2005. "Taliban on the run but far from vanquished."

Washington Post. 9/16/2006. "Tensions Overshadow Gains in Afghanistan; Civil Conflict Could Reignite as Stability Remains Elusive."

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