Assessment for Uzbeks in Afghanistan

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The political situation of Uzbeks in Afghanistan changed radically in 2001, when the United States led a coalition in overthrowing the Pashtun-dominated Taliban government. Although led by a Pashtun, Hamid Karzai, the interim government set in place by 2002 also included ethnic Uzbeks, including General Abdul Rashid Dostum. While they exhibit four of the five factors that encourage rebellion – past rebellion and current protest; territorial concentration; generally high levels of group organization; and regime instability – Uzbeks are unlikely to rebel against the new central state so long as they maintain representation.

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Analytic Summary

The Uzbeks are a Turkic-Mongol people who speak primarily Uzbek, while the majority Pashtun are from a Mediterranean variant of the Europoid racial stock and speak primarily the Iranian-based language of Dari (RACE = 2; LANG = 2). While Uzbeks and Pashtun follow different social customs (CUSTOM = 1), they share a common religion: Sunni Islam (BELIEF = 0). Uzbeks occupy the northern agricultural region of Afghanistan, across the border from their ethnic kin in Uzbekistan (GROUPCON = 3). They moved into the area during the raids of Turkic people across Central Asia in the sixteenth century. Uzbeks ruled northern Afghanistan until 1751, when Ahmad Shah, the King of Afghanistan and founder of the Durrani Empire, took control of the region. Within the Durrani Empire, however, the Uzbeks were able to maintain between 10 and 12 rival independent principalities (or Khanates) that were almost entirely autonomous from Kabul, aside from nominal tribute payments. This independence started to erode in 1850, when Dost Muhammad Khan occupied Balkh, and was finalized in 1859 with the fall of Qunduz to Khan's forces. Large numbers of Uzbeks also moved into Afghanistan in the 1920s and 1930s from Central Asia as those countries underwent Sovietization.

In addition to agriculture, Uzbeks have also been involved in Afghanistan's textile industry since its inception. Uzbek women are renowned for the carpets they make, which historically have provided Uzbeks with substantial supplementary income. These economic advantages have also historically led to political advantages for Uzbeks, who have occupied senior positions in various Afghan governments and the civil service. In addition to Uzbek service in the central government, Uzbeks also maintained a good deal of autonomy for their own region, a feat achieved in part due to their economic self-sufficiency.

The Uzbeks are represented primarily by the National Islamic Movement (a.k.a., Jumbesh-e-Milli Islami) headed by General Abdul Rashid Dostam. Dostam maintained the relative autonomy of the northern Uzbek-populated regions, partially by supporting the Communist government until 1992 (REB92 = 7). (His defection contributed to the Najibullah regime's fall later that year.) Dostam briefly supported Rabbani (until early 1993), when he withdrew support because of the narrow construction of Rabbani's government (REB94 = 5). Dostam returned to his stronghold in the northern provinces and effectively ruled them for the duration of Rabbani's rule. When the Taliban threatened to overrun the country in late 1995 and early 1996, Dostam again allied with Rabbani and his Tajik forces (REB96-01 = 7). The Taliban did gain Kabul, evicting the Rabbani government. However, Dostam managed to stave off attacks on his territories. With the fall of the Taliban, Dostam reentered the central government in 2002 and was appointed Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces by President Karzai in 2005. Uzbek interests are also represented by General Abdul Malek's Azady. Both organizations have conventional and militant wings (GOJPA04-06 = 4), with fighters from the latter engaging in a series of armed clashes during 2005-2006.

Uzbek grievances center on greater political participation in the central government and greater control over Uzbek-majority areas. In 2005-2006, these grievances were expressed in calls by ethnic Uzbeks for a federal Afghanistan and autonomy for the northern provinces (POLGR05-06 = 3). They also desire equal status for the Uzbek language and greater economic opportunities.

Since the overthrow of the Taliban regime, Uzbeks have engaged in rebellious activities only once when, in April 2004, troops loyal to General Dostam attacked and took control of Maymana, the capital of the remote province of Faryab (REB02-03 = 0; REB04 = 3; REB05-06 = 0). However, they have regularly engaged in small-scale protest activities (PROT01-03 = 0; PROT04-06 = 3). Uzbeks have clashed with Tajiks and Pashtuns in recent years (INTERCON04-05 = 1).

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References

Adamec, Ludwig W. 1997. Historical Dictionary of Afghanistan. 2d Ed. Lanham, MD: The Scarecrow Press

Ahady, Anwar-ul-Haq "Conflict In Post-Soviet-Occupation Afghanistan" Journal of Contemporary Asia, 1991, 21 (4), pp. 513-28.

Ahady, Anwar-ul-Haq "Afghanistan, State Breakdown" in Jack Goldstone, Ted R. Gurr & Frank Moshiri (eds.) Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder: Westview, 1991. pp. 162-93.

Ahady, Anwar-ul-Haq "The Changing Interests of the Regional Powers and the Resolution of the Afghan Conflict" Asian Affairs: An American Review, 1994, 21 (2), pp. 80-93.

Amnesty International. Various reports. 2002-2003.

Ewans, Martin. 2002. Afghanistan: A New History. London: Routledge.

International Crisis Group. 2005. "Political Parties in Afghanistan." Asia Briefing No. 39.

Jawad, Nassim Afghanistan: A Nation of Minorities, Minority Rights Group, 1992.

Keesing's Contemporary Archive, Keesing's Record of World Events, 1990-1994.

Library of Congress. "Country Profile: Afghanistan."

LexisNexis, various reports, 1990-2006

Nerwell, Richard S. "Post-Soviet Afghanistan: The Position of Minorities" Asian Survey, 1989, 29 (11), pp. 1090-1108.

.Noelle, Christine. 1997. State and Tribe in Nineteenth-Century Afghanistan: The Reign of Amir Dost Muhammed Kan (1826-1863). Surrey, UK: Curzon Press.

Nyrop, Richard F. & Donald M. Seekins (eds.) Afghanistan: A Country Study, The American University, 1986.

Roy, Olivar Islam and Resistance in Afghanistan, Cambridge: Cambridge U. Press, 1990.

Rubin, Barnett R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System. New Haven: Yale University Press

U.S. Department of State. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Afghanistan. 1998-2006.

Vogelsand, William. 2002. The Afghans. Oxford: Blackwell.

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