Assessment for Russians in Turkmenistan

View Group Chronology

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Due to the authoritarian nature of the Turkmenistan government, it is unlikely that the highly cohesive Russians will begin to engage in protests or militant activity, despite the fact that they are experiencing discrimination and have been encouraged to leave the country. The Turkmenistan government appears to be on a trend of becoming even more restrictive, particularly in regards to the use of the Russian language. Without opportunities to become part of the ruling apparatus or the ability to create organizations to pressure the government, there appears to be no way for Russians to alter these policies. In order to maintain its close working relationship with Turkmenistan, the Russian government seems unwilling to fully pressure the Turkmenistan government on the Russian minority's behalf. Without the ability to protest and still experiencing some difficulty leaving the country, the Russians in Turkmenistan are left with few options. If the language restrictions continue to be enforced or are made more severe, it is possible that the Russians may resort to some form of militant activity. However, they have witnessed how the Turkmenistan government has repressed both minority groups and Turkmen themselves. Thus, the most likely response to continued discrimination or increased repression is departure for Russia, rather than collective protest or rebellion.

top

Analytic Summary

Turkmenistan is the most authoritarian of the former Soviet Republics but remains the second wealthiest in Central Asia, largely due to its oil and gas reserves combined with its relatively small population. The government has remained in power since independence, and in 1999 the President, Saparmurad Niyazov, was elected for life by the legislature. Following Niyazov’s sudden death on 21 December 2006, Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedow was elected the new president on 11 February 2007. Turkmenistan’s government has a cooperative relationship with Moscow, although that has not translated into any visible changes in the cultural, political or economic position of the Russians. Most of the country’s land is arid, rugged and mountainous. The country is rich in hydrocarbons, but their exploitation requires manpower and technology. The regime initially found it beneficial to cultivate the aid of skilled and educated Russians, although this has changed as the government now feels better able to satisfy the demand for skilled labor with ethnic Turkmen; this has led to a deterioration in conditions for ethnic Russians.

The Russians arrived in Turkmenistan at the beginning of the 20th and have remained as highly cohesive as the state will tolerate since Turkmenistan’s independence. The Russians are racially (RACE = 3), linguistically (LANG = 2), culturally (CUSTOM = 1) and religiously (BELIEF = 2) distinct from the majority Turkmen.

Many Russians emigrated soon after independence, and the minority that remained has been very quiet. They are found mostly in the larger cities of the country (GROUPCON = 1). The few advantages this minority held in the initial years after independence have slowly been reduced, with even their symbolic privilege of dual citizenship abrogated in 2003. Recent years have seen an increased drive to restrict the Russian language and promote Turkmen, although Russian is still heard regularly in city centers (CULPO202-06 = 3). Ethnic Russians increasingly see their economic prospects deteriorating and have sought Russian citizenship and a return to Russia. While the Orthodox Church is the only recognized religion other than Islam, it operates under very restrictive conditions (CULPO101-06 = 2).

The Constitution of Turkmenistan de jure provides equal rights and freedoms to all citizens, regardless of ethnicity. However, in practice, Russians and the majority of the population (regardless of ethnic membership) are excluded from the political system because of the closed nature of the system itself; in recent years, more explicit discrimination against ethnic Russians has increased (POLDIS00-02 = 3; POLDIS03-06 = 4). The Russians are under-represented in positions of higher power within the administration and the civil service, and have come under increasing economic discrimination, with many losing their positions beginning in 2003 (ECDIS03-06 = 4). Turkmen is a mandatory subject in schools, and Russian has been all but outlawed in the educational system; while Russian can still be found in business transactions and occasionally in government, it is strongly discouraged. In addition, various Russian language media outlets have been shut down one by one. In 2000, the Russian language radio stations were closed, and Russian newspapers were banned earlier; there is now only one Russian language daily, which is produced by the government, compared with 22 Turkmen dailies. The infiltration of media sources from outside the country has also been blocked. However, most of the conflict and persecution appears to be at the official level, with no reports of tension between the Russian and Turkmen people or of any ethnic-based violence (INTERCON01-06 = 0).

Due to the authoritarian nature of the government, all potential opposition to the regime is not tolerated. As a result, there are no specific organizations dedicated to the promotion of Russian concerns (GOJPA06 = 1). The Russians in Turkmenistan have had to rely on the Russian government and the good working relationship between Russia and Turkmenistan to ensure their good treatment. With the removal of all Russian troops and border guards at the end of 2000, it is unknown how much future influence the Russian government can have over the situation of Russians in Turkmenistan. As the situation for Russians deteriorated in 2001 through 2003, the Russian government continued to issue statements condemning the violation of civic rights, although this did not have any visible impact. Without any active organizations promoting the group’s interests, it is somewhat difficult to determine their main demands and grievances. There is some information, however, from those Russians who have left the country. Primarily the demands included the right to participate in the decision-making process, for equality in civil rights and status, and a demand to change the 2003 policy abrogating the dual-citizenship allowance. Other demands were to use Russian in dealings with the government, to teach and publish in their own language, and greater economic opportunities. However, these demands have not been voiced in more recent years.

With the severe oppression of any opposition in Turkmenistan (REPGENCIV04-06 = 2), it is no surprise that there has been no militant activity and very little protest. During 2002 and 2003 the limited protests were primarily verbal in nature and only a couple of street protests with no more than 10-20 people protesting the new citizenship law (REB00-06 = 0; PROT00 = 0; PROT02 = 1; PROT03 = 2). No protests were reported from 2004 through 2006 (PROT04-06 = 0). Perhaps protests have occurred and are just not being reported in the state-controlled media. Any form of dissent is strictly not tolerated; therefore it is not possible to determine if the Russians have contemplated such activity.

top

References

International Crisis Group. 2003. "Cracks in the Marble: Turkmenistan’s Failing Dictatorship." Asia Report No. 44.

International Crisis Group. 2004. "Repression and Regression in Turkmenistan: A New International Strategy." Asia Report No. 85.

International Crisis Group. 2007. "Turkmenistan after Niyazov." Asia Briefing No. 60.

LexisNexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Various reports. 2001-2003.

Samakhova, Irina, and Michel Vale. 1994. "Home to Russia." Russian Social Science Review. 35:3. 68-75.

U.S. Department of State. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Turkmenistan. 1999-2006.

top