Assessment for Russians in Tajikistan

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Chances of ethnic Russian rebellion in Tajikistan are virtually nonexistent. Ethnic Russians have not suffered repression from the Tajik regime, do not face official discrimination and are not mobilized politically. While ethnic Russians maintain their group identity, this has not translated into political action. Likewise, the probability of ethnic Russian protest in Tajikistan is also low. In the future, as in the past, ethnic Russians dissatisfied with the situation in Tajikistan are more likely to emigrate to Russia than to agitate for an improvement in their status in Tajikistan.

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Analytic Summary

The collapse of the Soviet Union left populations of ethnic Russians in many of the newly independent states, including those of Central Asia. While under Soviet rule, these populations in general had enjoyed privileged positions, which had unleashed ethnic and territorial disputes within the successor states dating back to the pre-communist era. Tajikistan typically represents a part of what Edward Shevardnadze calls "a crescent of conflict" in the former Soviet territory. From May 1992 to January 1993, a brutal civil war visited vast destruction on Tajikistan when regional and ethnic factions took up arms in the name of communism, democracy and Islam. While a peace agreement was reached in 1997, skirmishes continue between the government and factions of the opposition which rejected the peace accords. In 2000 and 2001, the government launched initiatives against two such factions, resulting in the deaths of their leaders.

The civil war has provoked a massive exodus of all ethnic groups into the country's neighbors and into the European parts of the former Soviet Union. This included emigration by a significant portion of ethnic Russians.

While many Russians have left the country and continue to emigrate (EMIG04-06 = 1), the Tajik government has encouraged them to remain, as they represent an important source of skilled labor. A December 1996 law was designed to encourage Russians to stay by allowing for dual citizenship, but economic conditions nevertheless continue to fuel ethnic Russian emigration.

The relatively small number of ethnic Russians remaining in Tajikistan is largely demobilized politically. No formal political organizations represent ethnic Russian interests, although there are a small number of organizations promoting cultural interests (GOJPA = 1); protest is virtually nonexistent (PROT90X = 1; PROT02-06 = 0). Now that Tajikistan has granted Russians the option of attaining dual citizenship, continuing with Russian language education (for both Russians and Tajiks), and continuing widespread use of Russian in government and business, there are virtually no demands or grievances made by the Russians against the government. There was no political, economic or cultural discrimination reported in the 2000 to 2006 period (POLDIS00-06 = 0; ECDIS00-06 = 0). Reports in the 1990s suggested widespread societal discrimination, although this has been less apparent in recent years, and there were no recent reports of any intercommunal violence (INTERCON01-06 = 0).

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References

Lexis/Nexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

Library of Congress. 1996. "A Country Study: Tajikistan." http://memory.loc.gov/frd/cs/tjtoc.html, accessed 7/20/2009.

Library of Congress. 2007. "Country Profile: Tajikistan." http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/Tajikistan.pdf, accessed 7/20/2009.

U.S. State Department. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Tajikistan. 1999-2006.

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