Assessment for Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

There is a moderate risk of rebellion by ethnic Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan in the near future. Ethnic Uzbeks exhibit five of the characteristics that increase the risk of violence: persistent protest; territorial concentration; generally high levels of group cohesion and organization; recent regime instability; and social discrimination and government repression. Ethnic Uzbeks demonstrated a willingness to protest and rebel in the early 1990s and, after a lull in the late 1990s, have recently increased their levels of protest. The explicitly non-violent Islamic Hizb ut-Tahrir advocates the establishment of a Caliphate in Central Asia and has exposed ethnic Uzbeks to increased state repression, but it also may undermine the likelihood of violent actions by the minority.

Protest by ethnic Uzbeks will likely continue at low to moderate levels in the near future. The Akayev government did little to address Uzbek grievances, which only aggravated tensions. It was southern cities, such as Osh (where Uzbeks are concentrated), that saw the first violent revolt, which ousted the president in 2005. It remains to be seen what policies the new government will pursue, but if Uzbeks are not able to go through formal or electoral channels to express grievances, popular protest can be expected to increase.

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Analytic Summary

Kyrgyzstan became a constituent part of the Soviet Union in 1920. Known as the Kyrgyz Autonomous Soviet Republic, it comprised present day Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. In 1925 Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan were separated but both remained Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republics. It was only in 1936 that the Kyrgyz ASSR was given a full republic status within the Soviet Union. As in many areas of Central Asia, borders were ill-defined and each Central Asian republic contained not only the titular ethnic group but significant populations of other groups. In Kyrgyzstan, the primary non-titular ethnic group is the Uzbeks, who are concentrated in the southern Osh, Batken and Dzhalal-Abad regions (GROUPCON = 3).

Tensions surrounding the role of ethnic Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan's political life began even before the republic declared independence from the USSR in 1991. In 1989, Uzbeks began demanding local autonomy from Moscow, and some pressed for annexation of the Uzbek-populated areas by neighboring Uzbekistan.

These separatist-irredentist claims gathered momentum in 1990, and ethnic clashes erupted in the region of Osh. At the time, the violence revolved around the Kyrgyz government's distribution of land for homestead plots. The Osh incident was believed to have taken place without official leadership and revealed the extent to which inter-ethnic tension had accumulated. It also provided Uzbek elites with arguments supporting demands for the union of Osh with Uzbekistan. While demands for union with Uzbekistan or regional autonomy in Kyrgyzstan have not been heard recently, there has been a consistent demand for broader civil rights and greater Uzbek representation in government posts.

International observers initially had high hopes for democracy in Kyrgyzstan. President Akayev (1991-2005), though formerly a Communist, was the only Central Asian leader not to have emerged from its highest echelons, and thus he did not display the hostility to reforms found among other former Communists in the region. However, by the 2000 elections (which Akayev won with 74 percent of the vote amid accusations of widespread irregularities), Akayev's tenure had clearly turned authoritarian. Despite these authoritarian developments, Akayev did make efforts to maintain inter-ethnic stability within the country. Accordingly, he fostered a dialogue between the three largest ethnic groups, the Kyrgyz, Russians and Uzbeks, in an attempt to prevent resentments and misunderstandings from erupting into violent clashes. Despite such attempts, in 2006 ethnic Uzbeks reportedly beat up two ethnic Kyrgyz. This prompted approximately 150 Kyrgyz to gather in preparation for retaliation against Uzbeks, though further violence did not occur (INTERCON06 = 1).

Ethnic Uzbeks have been represented in parliament from 1991 to present, although they have been consistently underrepresented. Uzbeks also face discrimination in jobs for the civil service as well as other practices that restrict their ability to organize politically and have fair judicial hearings to the same degree as ethnic Kyrgyz (POLDIS06 = 3).

Group members also face significant economic disadvantages. For instance, the Batken region, which is one of the areas where Uzbeks are concentrated in Kyrgyzstan, is one of the poorest and most underdeveloped regions in the country. Approximately 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Moreover, since April 2005, Kyrgyz law stipulates that all students applying to universities must be proficient in Kyrgyz, which further limits ethnic Uzbeks' access to higher education (ECDIS04 = 2; ECDIS05-06 = 3; CULPO204-06 = 2).

Uzbek grievances include a demand for greater participation in the political process (POLGR04-06 = 2), improved economic opportunities and greater state support for education (ECGR04-06 = 2), as well as greater language rights in schools and in dealings with the government (CULGR04-06 = 2). Relevant representatives of Uzbek interests include the Party of National Unity and Concord, and two prominent individuals: Mahqamajan Mamasaidov (president of the Uzbek Cultural Centre) and Davran Sabirov. Some Uzbeks have been drawn to militant Islamic movements such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU, now sometimes called the Islamic Movement of Central Asia). The Islamic Hizb ut-Tahrir has had more success in attracting adherents in recent years, especially following the IMU's virtual destruction during the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan, where a large number of IMU fighters fought alongside the Taliban (GOJPA = 3). Protests, which had peaked in the early to mid-1990s (PROT90X = 4), have been consistent but moderate since (PROT99-01 = 2; PROT02 = 3; PROT03 = 1; PROT04 = 0; PROT05 = 1; PROT06 = 3).

Ethnic Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan are also subject to pressures from beyond Kyrgyzstan's borders. Beginning in 1998, the Kyrgyz Uzbeks became a primary target for recruitment by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which operated from Tajikistan and Afghanistan. The IMU's main aim was to oust the secular regime of Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan in order to build an Islamic state. Beginning in August 1999, southern Kyrgyzstan was shaken by the terrorist activities of the IMU members who had infiltrated the country from their bases in Tajikistan and who demanded to be allowed to enter Uzbekistan and fight Karimov's regime. A series of terrorist attacks committed by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan occurred in 2001 and 2002 (REB01-02 = 1). The IMU's activities, however, seem to have been curtailed after U.S. forces obstructed their bases in Afghanistan, and no recent rebellion has occurred (REB04-06 = 0).

From the state's perspective, however, the most alarming recent development has been the rise in support for the non-militant Islamic organization Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is banned throughout Central Asia. Hizb ut-Tahrir's actions, such as distribution of anti-regime leaflets and promoting what the government sees as religious extremism, have led to widespread arrests of leaders and followers; almost all arrests of Hizb ut-Tahrir activists have been ethnic Uzbeks (REPNVIOL04-05 = 3; REPNVIOL06 = 5).

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References

Askar Akayev. 1994. "Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia's Democratic Alternative," Democratizatsiya.

Freedom House. 2005. "Country Report: Kyrgyzstan."

Grebenshchikov, Igor. 2001. "Uzbek Minority Blues." The Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

International Crisis Group. 2003. "Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb ut-Tahrir." Asia Report No. 58.

LexisNexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

Rotar, Igor. 2006. "The Islamist Underground in Southern Kyrgyzstan." The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor 4:3.

Sadybakasova, Astra. 2006. "Kyrgyzstan: How Real are Uzbek Minority Concerns?" Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

Saidazimova, Gulnoza. 2006. "Central Asia: Is Islamic Movement Of Uzbekistan Really Back?" RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty.

U.S. State Department. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Kyrgyzstan. 2001-2006.

UNEP, UNDP, OSCE and NATO. 2005. "Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation - Central Asia - Ferghana/Osh/Khujand area." http://enrin.grida.no/environment-and-security/ferghana-report-eng.pdf.

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