Assessment for Bodos in India

View Group Chronology

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Bodos have a moderate risk for rebellion, with three risk factors. They are territorially concentrated north of the Brahmaputra River in Assam and have a history of protest and violence against the state. Factors mitigating the risk of rebellion include efforts at negotiation and accommodation of Bodos demands. Two militant Bodo organizations have reached ceasefires with government officials, including in 2005 a ceasefire between the National Democratic Front of Bodoland and government. Final resolution of the conflict will depend on implementation of accords over the next several years and on eased competition between Bodo and Assamese organizations for political dominance.

Bodo protest will likely continue at low to moderate levels in the near future. Numerous Bodo political organizations continue to mobilize the community, in particular students. The democratic nature of India's government also makes protest a relatively low-cost form of political resistance.

Because the agreement reached in 2003 for the Bodo Territorial Council did not take the needs of all Bodo groups into consideration, there is still a great possibility for conflict between these groups as well as uprising by the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, the groups’ most radical organization. This is especially true if the talks among the NDFB and the government do not end positively.

top

Analytic Summary

Bodos, indigenous to the subcontinent, are hill tribals of Mongol extraction who inhabit the northern plains region of Assam (RACE = 1; GROUPCON = 3). Bodos are fervently proud of their heritage and culture and have increasingly felt that their own culture and language is threatened by Assamese dominance (CUSTOM = 1; LANG = 2).

Historically, the northeast part of India, including Assam, was sparsely populated. However, during the colonial period, the shortage of manpower in Assam was regarded as a major obstacle to British colonial plans (to clear the jungles, reclaim swampy lands for cultivation, develop tea cultivation, etc.). As a result, the British encouraged migration from East Bengal into Ahom. The inflow of people to the northeast continued even after the partition of India in 1947.

The population of northeast India has seen unprecedented growth during the past century, and that of Assam, for example, increased from 3,290,000 around partition to approximately 26 million in 2005. After the partition of British India in 1947, several hundred thousand Bengali-speaking Hindus left what was then East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and flowed into Assam by late 1950. Since 1947, three tribal states have been separated from Assam: Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Nagaland. Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, and Manipur of northeast India were considered for inclusion in Assam, but have also become separate states.

In 1956, Jawaharlal Nehru's government created linguistic states in the wake of ethnic strife throughout northeast India. However, Bodos (one of the largest tribal groups in India) did not receive a separate state but were incorporated into the state of Assam. Most Bodos seek autonomy within India in the form of a state of their own called "Bodoland" (which would comprise almost the entire area north of the Brahmaputra River in Assam). However, a relatively small segment of the group population seeks secession from India (POLGR06 = 4). Although the Assamese-dominated Assam's People Party (AGP) government attempted to treat Bodo tribals and other minority groups (within Assam) as part of greater Assamese society, the Bodos opposed these policies. Under the auspices of the All-Bodos Students Union (ABSU), headed by Upendra Nath Brahma, the Bodo community launched a self-determination movement in the late 1980s, reminiscent of the Assamese student movement a decade earlier. The Bodos' demand for a separate state from Assam, however is unacceptable to AGP members who fiercely oppose the division of the already "much-fragmented" state. The Bodos have also demanded that the central government recognize Bodo as one of India's national languages and that Bodo be declared as the official language in Bodo areas. They have called for an increase in the number of seats reserved for tribal peoples in admissions into educational institutions, as well as more housing grants, radio and television stations, and an agricultural university for Bodos. These cultural and economic demands, however, have not been voiced in recent years.

Bodos are represented by a variety of organizations, including the All-Bodos Students Union, the Bodo Liberation Tigers, the Bodo Security Force and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland. These organizations have at times resorted to violent tactics, including attacks on public buildings and railroads to attract the attention of the central government. Both the ABSU and the Bodo Security Force (BSF) have employed violent measures to gain publicity for their cause. In the mid to late 1980s, more than 600 people were killed in Bodo-related violence. Between 2001 and 2003, Bodos clashed with Bengalis and Santal adivasis. Intercommunal conflict has continued in recent years, including with Assamese (INTERCON04-06 = 1).

In February 2003, an agreement was reached between the national and state governments and Bodo leaders to create a Bodo Tribal Council that provided for greater self-rule in Bodo majority areas. The deal was implemented in December 2003, allowing for greater political control (POLDIS03-06 = 1). As part of the settlement, the federal government announced the funding for the creation of a hospital and the provision of jobs for the rebels who had surrendered (ECDIS03-06 = 1). Despite these developments, some Bodo factions continued to engage in militant activity (REB01-02 = 4; REB03 = 2; REB04 = 1; REB05 = 0; REB06 = 1). In 2005, an additional militant organization, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, reached a year-long ceasefire with the government. Though the ceasefire technically elapsed in June 2006, there were no incidents of violence, and the talks were continuing. Protest has continued at low levels in recent years (PROT01-02 = 3; PROT03 = 2; PROT04-05 = 0; PROT06 = 2).

top

References

Darnell, Alfred T. and Sunita Parikh. 1988. "Religion, Ethnicity, and the Role of the State: Explaining Conflict in Assam." Ethnic and Racial Studies. 11:3.

Lexis-Nexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

South Asia Terrorism Portal. 12/16/2008. "National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) - Terrorist Group of Assam." http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/assam/terrorist_outfits/ndfb.htm, accessed 4/1/2009.

top