Assessment for Mohajirs in Pakistan

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Mohajirs risk for rebellion is moderate, as several risk factors are present. Mohajirs have a history of persistent protest, high levels of group cohesion and a history of repression by the government. Furthermore, regime instability in Pakistan (most recently, the resignation of the Musharraf regime and the return to civilian government) is another risk factor. Even though there were no acts of violent rebellion from 2001 to 2006, Mohajirs, as represented by MQM activists, are unlikely to completely abandon sporadic violence in the near future, although their concentration in urban areas with a high concentration of police somewhat militates against escalation of violence beyond a certain point. Mohajirs are highly mobilized, despite factionalization, in the Sindhi province’s urban center of Karachi. The Bhutto (PPP), Sharif and Musharraf (PML) governments targeted Mohajir activists and political organizations for repression. The Mohajirs have a strong sense of political and economic grievance, and their history demonstrates their unwillingness to be ignored. Karachi and the well-being of Mohajirs are intrinsically related. Until the Pakistani government can alleviate the social, economic and political problems plaguing its major city, Mohajir grievances cannot be addressed.

Yet, perhaps one of the greatest risks to Mohajir well-being is continued in-fighting among the different factions of MQM, though this has declined in recent years. Intracommunal violence has arguably cost more Mohajir lives than Mohajir-government or Mohajir-Sindhi clashes. While prior to 2001 inter-communal fighting between Mohajirs and Sindhis was a significant problem, these two ethnic groups have since been able to build a political alliance, reducing tension. However, clashes between Mohajirs and Islamists have been a problem in recent years. Overall, though, the lasting basis for mutual accommodation with the government, with other ethnic groups, or between Mohajir factions, lies in developing the country’s capacity to satisfy the claims and counterclaims of deprivation, both political and socio-economic. Pakistan’s continued democratization and economic growth seems to be the only possible long-term answer.

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Analytic Summary

Mohajirs, which means literally "refugee," are the Urdu-speaking Muslims who fled India after the 1947 partition of the sub-continent and their descendents. Group members are concentrated in Sindh Province, particularly in urban areas (GROUPCON = 3). Urdu is the Mohajirs' mother tongue as well as the national language and the language of most print media. While Punjabi is the most widely spoken language, more than 75 percent of Pakistanis can speak and understand Urdu and, in urban areas, approximately 95 percent of the people communicate in Urdu. Mohajirs are primarily Sunni Muslims, though some are Shi'a (BELIEF = 0; RELIGS1 = 5). However, most Mohajirs’ primary identity is not religious but revolves around their "outsider" status. Competition with native Sindhis has defined Mohajirs’ political and economic situation in Pakistan more than any other factor. Sindhis, who have become a minority in their own province, have resented Mohajir political and economic influence in the urban centers (ECDIS01-06 = 0). Furthermore, the primary Mohajir political organization was reportedly organized by the Punjabi-supported Zia government to counter the power of the Sindhi Pakistan People’s Party. While in the past Mohajirs have claimed to be politically under-represented proportionately to their population or to their financial (tax) contributions, in 2006 the Muttiheda Qaumi Movement (MQM), the largest Mohajir political party, held 25 of 340 -- or approximately 7 percent of -- seats in the national legislature. Given that Mohajirs constitute approximately 8 percent Pakistan's total population, their political representation is currently proportionate to their share of the national population (POLDIS06 = 0). The competition between Mohajirs and Sindhis has often escalated to violence, especially in Karachi. Recently, however, these two groups formed an alliance that focused discontent on the Punjabi-dominated government of Musharraf. It is unclear what the return of Sindhi-led civilian government will mean for the coalition between the two groups.

Mohajirs are mainly represented by the MQM and its various factions. Factionalization among Mohajir groups is severe, with each party claiming its own territory in Karachi. In the past, violence between MQM factions often exceeded violence between Mohajirs and the government or Mohajirs and other ethnic groups. Despite political factionalization, Mohajirs share a relatively strong group identity. The MQM and its factions are also generally held responsible for the extreme levels of violence in Karachi although MQM routinely denies charges of terrorism. During 2004-2006, most of the violence involving Mohajirs came in the context of clashes between members of the All Pakistan Mohajir Students Organization (APMSO) and members of Islami Jamiat Talaba (IJT) (CCGROUPSEV104-06 = 5). Police have frequently arrested Mohajir leaders and members and regularly harassed activists at MQM functions (REPNVIOL04 = 3) and participants in APMSO riots (REPVIOL04-06 = 3).

Originally founded as a student organization in 1978, the MQM declared itself a political party in 1986 and has since become increasingly adept at playing the political game. Initially preferring to forge alliances with the non-Sindhi Pakistan Muslim League (the party of Nawaz Sharif and Musharraf), the MQM has branched out to form alliances with the Sindh nationalist Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz party and Baluch and Pashtun nationalist parties. In 1998, Mohajir, Baluch, Pashtun and Sindh parties allied to form the Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement (PONM), which seeks to challenge Punjab hegemony in Pakistan’s political life. Another group that represents Mohajirs, Sindhis and Baluchis is the Grand Democratic Alliance. Possibly as a result of these new alliances, violence in Karachi hit a low in 2000 after being in decline for several years. However, these alliances remain fragile, and nothing is to prevent MQM political maneuvering. Additionally, the MQM and its rival faction, MQM-H (splintered off in 1992) still engage in violent combat over territory and legitimacy.

Currently, Mohajir discontent is focused on the return of self-rule for the Sindh province. A major player in the provincial assembly since local elections were first held in 1988, the MQM lost political leverage when the Sharif government dismissed the provincial legislature and imposed direct rule in 1998. They have since regained some of that leverage following the reinstatement of provincial, National Assembly, and Senate elections in 2001, though many ethnic groups in Pakistan and the international community regard the elections as deeply flawed. Mohajirs also lobby for increased resources to be devoted to Sindh urban centers. Karachi has a population of more than 12 million and population growth that is double the rest of the country. The city’s population has rapidly grown to outstrip any and all available resources and infrastructure. Mohajirs have consistently protested since the 1980s for increased access to political and economic resources (PROT80X = 2) until peaking in 1995 (PROT98 = 3). Protest activity has trailed off in recent years (PROT04-06 = 0). In the past, they also resorted to armed struggle (REB90 = 2; REB95 = 5), though, again, violence against state authorities has not occurred in recent years (REB01-06 = 0). One of their political tactics of choice is the strike (which they have in the past enforced with snipers). The strikes often resulted in property damage and numerous injuries and deaths of MQM activists, civilians and police. The Mohajirs primarily wage their political campaign alone, without support from transnational sources.

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References

Ahmed, Feroz. 2002. "Ethnicity, State, and National Integration." In S.M. Naseem and Khalid Nadvi, eds. The Post-Colonial State and Social Transformation in India and Pakistan. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Khan, Adeel. 2004. "Mohajir Ethnic Nationalism in Pakistan: El Dorado Gone Sour." Asian Studies Review 28:41-56.

Lexis/Nexis. Various news reports.1990-2006.

U.S. Department of State. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Pakistan. 2001-2006.

U.S. Library of Congress. 2005. "Country Profile: Pakistan."

Verkaaik, Oskaar. 2004. Migrants and Militants: Fun and Urban Violence in Pakistan. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

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