journal article

Ethnopolitical Rebellion: A Cross-sectional Analysis of the 1980s with Risk Assessments for the 1990s

by Ted Robert Gurr and Will H. Moore

American Journal of Political Science
vol. 41
pp. 1079 - 1103
October 1997

A synthetic theoretical model built on both deprivation and resource mobilization arguments is constructed to explain ethnopolitical rebellion for the 1980s and to provide risk assessments for the early 1990s. The authors hypothesize that group which produce residuals well below the regression line will likely exhibit rebellious behavior in the early 1990s. They found broad support for the theoretical synthesis, but focused attention on the risk assessments. In addition to identifying ethnopolitical groups that did resort to greater violence in the early 1990s, the theoretical model helps explain why a number of groups that the analysis suggested would rebel in the early 1990s have not in fact done so.