paper

Assessing Risks of Ethnorebellion in the Year 2000: Three Empirical Approaches

by Will H. Moore and Ted Robert Gurr

The paper describes three empirical approaches to generating risk assessments of ethnorebellion using 1991-1995 data on 264 groups surveyed in the Minorities at Risk project. The results are compared with one another and, in high risk cases, with political developments through mid-1998. The approaches are risk profiling (based on a priori specification of risk factors), theoretical modeling, and empirical modeling, the latter two based on analysis of residuals from regression analysis.