Assessment for Nagas in India

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The Nagas in India have four of the factors that increase the likelihood of continuing rebellion: current rebellion; territorial concentration; repression by the government; and lost autonomy due to their inclusion in the Indian union in 1947. Factors that could possibly inhibit future militant actions include the Naga populace's desire for an end to violence and the government's promotion of economic development. In addition, India has a tradition of negotiating agreements that provide various separatist groups with some degree of autonomy. In 2000 India was also able to convince Burma to start closing down NSCN bases, further constraining rebel activities.

The most violent conflict currently involving Nagas is the internecine rivalry between the Isak-Muivah and Khaplang factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland. A third faction, the NSCN-Unification, was formed in 2007 in an attempt to unify the divided Naga insurgents. However, such efforts were rejected by the NSCN-IM. As such, continuing violence between the Naga rivals is likely to continue.

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Analytic Summary

The Nagas are primarily located in Nagaland Northeastern India, although some live in adjacent regions of other states (GROUPCON = 3). The territory of Nagaland was carved out of Assam by the Indian government in 1963. Of Tibeto-Burman origins, the Nagas moved into the traditionally isolated northeast of India prior to the 1800s (RACE = 3). There has been no significant migration of Nagas to other regions of India; however, groups such as the Bengalis from Bangladesh have moved into Naga-dominated areas in recent decades.

There are 16 main Naga tribal groups, most of which speak their own distinct languages (LANG = 2). The social customs of the Nagas have more in common with other tribal groups in the northeast than with the country's majority Hindu population. Nagaland is one of India's only two Christian majority states (BELIEF = 3). Christianity was brought into the northeast early in the 20th century by American Baptist missionaries.

Until British colonial rule was extended into the northeast, the Nagas remained socially isolated from the majority of India. The Nagas were granted special status under the British. However, even prior to the independence of India, the Nagas sought greater political control over their own affairs, including avoiding incorporation into India (PROT45X = 2). There has been limited economic development in the northeast, despite the changes that have occurred in the rest of India. The Nagas are disadvantaged due to past and current political and economic discrimination, mostly from the majority community (ECDIS04-06 = 2). While the creation of the state of Nagaland in 1963 has provided greater opportunities for political participation for the tribals, they still remain underrepresented (POLDIS04-06 = 2).

The majority of Nagas support obtaining widespread autonomy within the Indian union while a significant minority is seeking the creation of an independent Nagalim state (POLGR04-06 = 4). This state of Nagalim would encompass Nagaland along with Naga-dominated regions in India's Assam, Arunchal Pradesh and Manipur states along with Naga areas in neighboring Burma. Limited economic opportunities are also a key grievance among the Nagas along with concerns about the protection of their religious and cultural rights, particularly after violent attacks against Christians by alleged right-wing Hindus in other parts of India in 1999 and 2000 (ECGR04-06 = 2; CULGR04-06 = 1).

Since the late 1920s, various Naga groups have politically mobilized to obtain special status for their peoples. The interests of the Nagas are promoted by conventional organizations but also by militant organizations such as the various factions of the NSCN. It is estimated that more than two-thirds of the Naga population support these various organizations. The main conventional parties include the Nagaland People's Front (the ruling party of Nagaland from 2003 through 2008) and the Naga National Party. A third, the Nagaland Democratic Party, merged with the NPF in 2004. The main Naga rebel group, the NSCN, is splintered into two factions which follow different leaders: the NSCN-Isak-Muivah and the NSCN-Khaplang. The NSCN-IM, which appears to have broader group support, advocates the creation of an independent Nagalim state. Sporadic armed clashes broke out between the two NSCN factions in recent years (INTRACON04-06 = 1). The NSCN factions have bases and training facilities in the neighboring countries of Bhutan, Bangladesh and Burma, and in 2000 it was reported that the group received light arms from China. Both NSCN factions are involved in drug trafficking and extortion in order to finance their operations. The Naga Hoho (apex tribal council) has recently attempted to bring the two factions together as part of the process of negotiations with the government.

The relationship between the Nagas and other tribal groups has been volatile in recent years. More than 1,000 people have died in Naga-Kuki clashes since 1992; there were clashes between the NSCN-IM and the Kuki National Front in 2004. Additionally, the NSCN-IM was engaged in a running conflict with the Meitei organization United National Liberation Front from 2004 through 2006 (INTERCON04-06 = 1).

Naga protests in the form of strikes and demonstrations have been widely used from 1997 to 2006 (PROT98X = 5; PROT00 = 5; PROT01-06 = 3). Militant actions in support of greater autonomy or independence began in the mid-1950s but the rebel campaign has been largely sustained since the mid-1980s by the NSCN (REBEL55X = 6). In recent years, rebellion has taken the form of political banditry and small-scale violent attacks (REB01-06 = 1). There are more than 200,000 security forces personnel deployed in Nagaland. Between 2004 and 2006, both nonviolent and violent political actors faced repression, including a limited amount of lethal repression (REPNVIOL05 = 5; REPVIOL04 = 3; REPVIOL05 = 5; REPVIOL06 = 3).

Negotiations between the federal government and the NSCN-IM began in 1997 and continued periodically through 2006; a formal ceasefire was reached in 1997 and it has been continually extended despite violations by both sides. The major issues to be negotiated are the degree of autonomy and whether Naga-dominant areas outside Nagaland would be included in any peace agreement.

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References

Burman, J.J. Roy. 2008. "Contours of the Naga Upsurge." Asia Europe Journal. 6:145-156.

Callimachi, Rukmini. 5/5/2003. "A remote land of jungle, Jesus - and religious war." Daily Herald. http://www.dailyherald.com/special/passagefromindia/nagaland.asp, accessed 1/25/2009.

Gray, A. 1977. Structural Transformations in Nagaland. MA thesis. Edinburgh University.

Ghosh, Partha S. 1985. Ethnic and Religious Conflicts in South Asia. Conflict Studies 178.

Horam, M. 1975. Naga Polity. Delhi: B.R. publishing corporation

International Working Group for Indigenous Affairs. 1986. The Naga Nation and Its Struggle Against Genocide. IWGIA Document 56. Copenhagen: IWGIA.

LexisNexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

Maxwell, Neville. 11/1980. India, the Nagas and the North-East. MRG Report No 17, 2nd ed. London: Minority Rights Group.

Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization. n.d. "Nagalim." http://www.unpo.org/content/view/7899/131, accessed 3/31/2009.

South Asia Terrorism Portal. n.d. "Terrorist/Insurgent Groups-Nagaland." http://satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/nagaland/terrorist_outfits/index.html, accessed 3/31/2009.

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