Assessment for Sikhs in India

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Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The Sikhs have two of the factors that increase the likelihood of rebellion in the future: persistent protest in the past and territorial concentration. Factors that inhibit the resurgence of the rebellion include India's stable democratic tradition and its past efforts to reach settlements that provide greater autonomy. The restoration of the political process in the Punjab, through the holding of state elections in 1997, has also facilitated a return to normalcy. The population is weary of war and the focus is on rebuilding the state's economic base. Finally, with Singh as Prime Minister, it is unlikely that large divisions will occur between the Sikhs and other Indians because he demonstrates a major unification amongst all Indians, regardless of religion.

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Analytic Summary

The Sikhs are concentrated in India's northwest Punjab state, where they constitute the majority, but there are significant minorities in nearby states and in the country's capital, New Delhi (GROUPCON=3). The dispersal of the Sikhs is largely the result of voluntary migration, sometimes in search of better economic opportunities.

The Sikhs share a common language, Punjabi, which is also spoken by Hindus and Muslims who reside in Punjab state. Some Sikhs also speak either Hindi or English.(LANG = 1). The main characteristic that distinguishes the Sikhs from the country's majority Hindu community is their religion: Sikhism (BELIEF = 2). Sikhism is one of the world's newer religions as it first emerged in India in the late 1400s. Founded by Guru Nanak, spiritual leadership was passed through a succession of nine gurus (teachers) until it was invested in the Sikh's holy book. Orthodox Sikhs are visually distinctive as males wear beards, turbans, and usually carry the ceremonial sword, the kirpan (CUSTOM = 1).

The first unified Sikh state emerged in 1801 when Ranjit Singh consolidated numerous warring Sikh kingdoms. The Sikhs had resisted the efforts of the Mughal empire to extend its control into India's northwest. Waning Mughal power allowed the Sikhs to maintain control of the Punjab until Britain conquered the region in the mid-1800s (AUTLOST = 1). The British heralded the Sikhs as a "martial race" and the group was well represented in the army, a tradition that continued in independent India.

Beginning in the 1940s, the Sikhs, fearful of being dominated by the Hindus or Muslims, began to campaign for the creation of a separate Sikh state (PROT45X = 2). The partition of the subcontinent into India and Pakistan in 1947 had a major impact on the Sikhs as about half of the Sikh population migrated from Pakistan to India. More than one million Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs died in the violence that accompanied the partition.

In 1966, the original Punjab was subdivided to create three separate states, the result of which was that the Sikhs became the majority community in Punjab. The Sikhs were among the beneficiaries of India's Green Revolution which modernized agriculture in the Punjab, which is referred to as the country's bread basket. Calls for the creation of an independent Sikh state resurfaced in the 1970s and were embodied in the 1973 Anandpur Sahib Resolution adopted by the main Sikh political party, the Akali Dal. The resolution is interpreted as a call for independence by some observers.

The Sikh campaign for greater political rights was largely peaceful until the early 1980s (SEPX = 3). Led by Sant Jarnail Bindranwale, militant groups seeking secession reportedly began utilizing the Sikh's holy shrine, the Golden Temple, to organize an armed rebellion. The Indian army responded in 1984 by storming the Golden Temple. Bindranwale was killed during the assault but he became a martyr to thousands of Sikhs. Later that same year, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two of her Sikh bodyguards. Anti-Sikh riots followed, especially in New Delhi, and resulted in more than three thousand, mostly Sikh, deaths.

From the mid-1980s to 1993 (REBEL85X, 90X = 6), civil war reigned in Punjab. Since the government militarily suppressed the Sikh militants, there has only been sporadic violence in the region and few arrests of alleged rebels. Militant groups such as the Babbar Khalsa and the Khalistan Commando Force remain in existence but it is not clear how much support they have (GOJPA=3). These terrorist groups have had instances of sporadic bombings as well (REB05-06=1). The Sikh party, the Akali Dal, won the state elections in 1997 and governs the Punjab in a coalition with the Hindu-nationalist BJP. There is no current political discrimination against the Sikhs and despite the effects of the civil war, the Sikhs remain economically advantaged (POLDIS=0, ECDIS=0). Additionally, in 2004, the first non-Hindu Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh, who is a Sikh, was appointed to the position by Sonia Gandhi after she won the election but decided not to take office. (EXECREP=1)

The majority of Sikhs favor greater autonomy for the Punjab, while some militant groups are pressing for an independent state, Khalistan (POLGR04-06=4). A major concern remains identifying and taking legal action against the instigators of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and the provision of compensation to the victims. Further, the Sikhs are lobbying to uncover and hold those responsible for the widespread human rights abuses by security forces during the insurgency.

The Sikhs are primarily represented by conventional organizations although some militant groups exist. The Sikhs are factionalized based on political goals and religious issues. This lead to an instance of violence during the election in 2004. The group receives widespread political support from organizations such as the International Sikh Youth Federation, which was recently added by the U.S. to a list of terrorist-supporting groups.

Relations between the Sikhs and Hindus in the Punjab have remained free of violence in recent years. The March 2000 massacre of some 40 Sikhs in Jammu and Kashmir state, reportedly by Muslim militant groups seeking Kashmiri independence, has strained relations between the two communities. This was the first instance in which Sikhs were targeted in the Kashmiri insurgency. Another instance of riots and mob attacks was spurred by the elopement of two Sikh girls and two Hindu boys in February 2005 (INTERCON05 = 1).

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References

Baxter, C., Malik, Y.K., Kennedy, C.H., and R.C. Oberst. 1987. Government and Politics in South Asia. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

BBC. 7/23/2003. "Religion and Ethics: Sikhism" http://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/sikhism/customs/fiveks.shtml, accessed 3/3/2008.

Global Security.org.9/19/2007. "Sikhs in Punjab." http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/punjab.htm accessed 3/3/2008.

LexisNexis. Various news reports. 1990-2006.

Singh, Pritam. 2007. "The political economy of the cycles of violence and non-violence in the Sikh struggle for identity and political power: implications for Indian federalism." Third World Quarterly. 28:3. 555-570.

South Asia Terrorism Portal. n.d. "India-Terrorist, insurgent and extremist groups." http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/terroristoutfits/index.html, accessed 4/1/2009.

U.S. Library of Congress. "India - Sikhism." http://countrystudies.us/india/56.htm accessed 3/3/2008.

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